Failed technology futures: Pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey

F.W. Geels, Willem A. Smit

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    121 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Images of the future, with hindsight, turn out to be either right or wrong. In this article, past images of the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on traffic and transportation are investigated. Informed by the field of technology studies, seven key features are formulated that point at pitfalls and neglected aspects in many future expectations on technological developments and their societal impact. It is also argued that the evolution from broad sweeping promises to more down-to-earth assessments is inherent in technological developments, because expectations and diffuse scenarios also play a performative role in technological developments.
    Original languageUndefined
    Pages (from-to)867-885
    Number of pages19
    JournalFutures
    Volume32
    Issue number9/10
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2000

    Keywords

    • IR-34370
    • EWI-975
    • METIS-149062

    Cite this

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    title = "Failed technology futures: Pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey",
    abstract = "Images of the future, with hindsight, turn out to be either right or wrong. In this article, past images of the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on traffic and transportation are investigated. Informed by the field of technology studies, seven key features are formulated that point at pitfalls and neglected aspects in many future expectations on technological developments and their societal impact. It is also argued that the evolution from broad sweeping promises to more down-to-earth assessments is inherent in technological developments, because expectations and diffuse scenarios also play a performative role in technological developments.",
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    volume = "32",
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    Failed technology futures: Pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey. / Geels, F.W.; Smit, Willem A.

    In: Futures, Vol. 32, No. 9/10, 2000, p. 867-885.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Failed technology futures: Pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey

    AU - Geels, F.W.

    AU - Smit, Willem A.

    N1 - Imported from DIES

    PY - 2000

    Y1 - 2000

    N2 - Images of the future, with hindsight, turn out to be either right or wrong. In this article, past images of the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on traffic and transportation are investigated. Informed by the field of technology studies, seven key features are formulated that point at pitfalls and neglected aspects in many future expectations on technological developments and their societal impact. It is also argued that the evolution from broad sweeping promises to more down-to-earth assessments is inherent in technological developments, because expectations and diffuse scenarios also play a performative role in technological developments.

    AB - Images of the future, with hindsight, turn out to be either right or wrong. In this article, past images of the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on traffic and transportation are investigated. Informed by the field of technology studies, seven key features are formulated that point at pitfalls and neglected aspects in many future expectations on technological developments and their societal impact. It is also argued that the evolution from broad sweeping promises to more down-to-earth assessments is inherent in technological developments, because expectations and diffuse scenarios also play a performative role in technological developments.

    KW - IR-34370

    KW - EWI-975

    KW - METIS-149062

    U2 - 10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00036-7

    DO - 10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00036-7

    M3 - Article

    VL - 32

    SP - 867

    EP - 885

    JO - Futures

    JF - Futures

    SN - 0016-3287

    IS - 9/10

    ER -