Failure probability assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall: a case study in Yadong County, Tibet, China

Lixia Chen*, Le Mei, Bin Zeng, Kunlong Yin, D.P. Shrestha, Juan Du

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
8 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Yadong County located in the southern Himalayan mountains in Tibet, China, is an import frontier county. It was affected by landslides after the 2011 Sikkim earthquake (Mw = 6.8) and the 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw = 7.8). Casualties and property damage were caused by shallow landslides during subsequent rainfall on the earthquake-destabilized slopes. Existing researches have generally examined rainfall- and earthquake-triggered landslides independently, whereas few studies have considered the combined effects of both. Furthermore, there is no previous study reported on landslide hazards in the study area, although the area is strategically applicable for trade as it is close to Bhutan and India. This study developed a new approach that coupled the Newmark method with the hydrological model based on geomorphological, geological, geotechnical, seismological and rainfall data. A rainfall threshold distribution map was generated, indicating that the southeast part of Yadong is prone to rainfall-induced landslides, especially when daily rainfall is higher than 45 mm/day. Permanent displacement predictions were used to identify landslide hazard zones. The regression model used to calculate these permanent displacement values was 71% accurate. Finally, landslide probability distribution maps were generated separately for dry and wet conditions with rainfall of varying intensities. Results can serve as a basis for local governments to manage seismic landslide risks during rainy seasons.
Original languageEnglish
Article number16531
Pages (from-to)1-10
Number of pages10
JournalScientific reports
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Oct 2020

Keywords

  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
  • ITC-GOLD

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Failure probability assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall: a case study in Yadong County, Tibet, China'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this