Finding robust investments for the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure in 2050 by a scenario study

In the changing Dutch energy market, the ageing gas distribution grid needs investments. There is, however, a large uncertainty regarding certain aspects that affect the future role of this gas distribution grid, such as the eventual share of biomethane in the gas mix, whether power-to-gas will take-off and the expected lifetime of the grid. Hence, it is currently unclear what investments need to be made for the gas distribution infrastructure in order to cope with future changes. To find out how the future may unfold for the Dutch gas distribution infrastructure in 2050, four scenarios have been developed. Two key forces – a key force is a factor that has a large impact on the gas distribution grid but great uncertainty exists regarding its outcome – were chosen, namely “perceived energy resource scarcity” and “willingness and ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions”. Each scenario sketches the future Dutch gas infrastructure by defining, among others, the extent to which biomass will be used to produce biomethane, whether fossil fuel is allowed to be burned locally, and what types of gas will flow through the gas grid. With these scenarios at our disposal, in the next research step, we will establish the impact of the scenarios on the gas distribution grid – i.e. what the layout will be and the corresponding costs – and the accompanying biomethane infrastructure. For this, 3 typical locations were chosen: a rural region, an urban region, and an intermediate region. Through a multi-objective optimization – with maximizing net present value, maximizing biomethane production, and maximizing CO2 emission reduction as objectives – the possible layout of the gas distribution grid and the biomethane infrastructure will be determined for each region. The study’s aim is to find similarities in investments among the different layouts, to come to robust investments for the gas distribution infrastructure.