Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change

Niels M. Welsch; Jord J. Warmink; Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher; Denie C.M. Augustijn

Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

Climate change poses great risks to flood safety in river deltas. However, the exact development of climate change and the effect on flood levels is deeply uncertain. In this paper we show the spatial extent and the contribution of various uncertainties (i.e. sea level rise, changing discharges and lake set-up) on system deficiencies in an interconnected river delta. System deficiencies are defined as unaccepted high-water levels. We do this by application of scenario discovery combined with a delta scale one-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Comparison of water levels with surrounding embankment heights show the spatial distribution of system deficiencies, which strongly differ across different river branches and largely depend on local river geometry. Scenario discovery furthermore provides insights in the spatial distribution of which boundary conditions drive the found deficiencies.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flood Management
Subtitle of host publication	Adapting to Global Change: Innovative Approaches to Flood Management and Resilience
Editors	Slobodan P. Simonovic
Publisher	Western University
Pages	31-38
Number of pages	8
Publication status	Published - May 2026
Event	10th International Conference on Flood Management : Adapting to Glabal Change: Innovative Approaches to Flood Management and Resilience - Western University, London, Canada Duration: 20 May 2026 → 22 May 2026 Conference number: 10 https://icfm10.com/

Conference

Conference	10th International Conference on Flood Management
Abbreviated title	ICFM10
Country/Territory	Canada
City	London
Period	20/05/26 → 22/05/26
Internet address	https://icfm10.com/

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Deep Uncertainty
Climate Change
River Delta
Interconnectivity
Scenario Discovery

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Ch1.1_4_Welsch_et alFinal published version, 580 KB

https://icfm10.com/proceedings/papers/papers_numbered/ch1.1_4.pdf

Cite this

Welsch, N. M., Warmink, J. J., Hulscher, S. J. M. H., & Augustijn, D. C. M. (2026). Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change. In S. P. Simonovic (Ed.), Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flood Management: Adapting to Global Change: Innovative Approaches to Flood Management and Resilience (pp. 31-38). Western University. https://icfm10.com/proceedings/papers/papers_numbered/ch1.1_4.pdf

Welsch, Niels M. ; Warmink, Jord J. ; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H. et al. / Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flood Management: Adapting to Global Change: Innovative Approaches to Flood Management and Resilience . editor / Slobodan P. Simonovic. Western University, 2026. pp. 31-38

@inproceedings{36e5f4bbd8bc43b4a49e25fd9ca1daac,

title = "Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change",

abstract = "Climate change poses great risks to flood safety in river deltas. However, the exact development of climate change and the effect on flood levels is deeply uncertain. In this paper we show the spatial extent and the contribution of various uncertainties (i.e. sea level rise, changing discharges and lake set-up) on system deficiencies in an interconnected river delta. System deficiencies are defined as unaccepted high-water levels. We do this by application of scenario discovery combined with a delta scale one-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Comparison of water levels with surrounding embankment heights show the spatial distribution of system deficiencies, which strongly differ across different river branches and largely depend on local river geometry. Scenario discovery furthermore provides insights in the spatial distribution of which boundary conditions drive the found deficiencies.",

keywords = "Deep Uncertainty, Climate Change, River Delta, Interconnectivity, Scenario Discovery",

author = "Welsch, \{Niels M.\} and Warmink, \{Jord J.\} and Hulscher, \{Suzanne J.M.H.\} and Augustijn, \{Denie C.M.\}",

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editor = "Simonovic, \{Slobodan P.\}",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flood Management",

publisher = "Western University",

address = "Canada",

note = "10th International Conference on Flood Management : Adapting to Glabal Change: Innovative Approaches to Flood Management and Resilience, ICFM10 ; Conference date: 20-05-2026 Through 22-05-2026",

url = "https://icfm10.com/",

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Welsch, NM , Warmink, JJ , Hulscher, SJMH & Augustijn, DCM 2026, Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change. in SP Simonovic (ed.), Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flood Management: Adapting to Global Change: Innovative Approaches to Flood Management and Resilience . Western University, pp. 31-38, 10th International Conference on Flood Management , London, Ontario, Canada, 20/05/26. <https://icfm10.com/proceedings/papers/papers_numbered/ch1.1_4.pdf>

Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change. / Welsch, Niels M.; Warmink, Jord J.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H. et al.
Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flood Management: Adapting to Global Change: Innovative Approaches to Flood Management and Resilience . ed. / Slobodan P. Simonovic. Western University, 2026. p. 31-38.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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T1 - Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change

AU - Welsch, Niels M.

AU - Warmink, Jord J.

AU - Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.

AU - Augustijn, Denie C.M.

N1 - Conference code: 10

PY - 2026/5

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N2 - Climate change poses great risks to flood safety in river deltas. However, the exact development of climate change and the effect on flood levels is deeply uncertain. In this paper we show the spatial extent and the contribution of various uncertainties (i.e. sea level rise, changing discharges and lake set-up) on system deficiencies in an interconnected river delta. System deficiencies are defined as unaccepted high-water levels. We do this by application of scenario discovery combined with a delta scale one-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Comparison of water levels with surrounding embankment heights show the spatial distribution of system deficiencies, which strongly differ across different river branches and largely depend on local river geometry. Scenario discovery furthermore provides insights in the spatial distribution of which boundary conditions drive the found deficiencies.

AB - Climate change poses great risks to flood safety in river deltas. However, the exact development of climate change and the effect on flood levels is deeply uncertain. In this paper we show the spatial extent and the contribution of various uncertainties (i.e. sea level rise, changing discharges and lake set-up) on system deficiencies in an interconnected river delta. System deficiencies are defined as unaccepted high-water levels. We do this by application of scenario discovery combined with a delta scale one-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Comparison of water levels with surrounding embankment heights show the spatial distribution of system deficiencies, which strongly differ across different river branches and largely depend on local river geometry. Scenario discovery furthermore provides insights in the spatial distribution of which boundary conditions drive the found deficiencies.

KW - Deep Uncertainty

KW - Climate Change

KW - River Delta

KW - Interconnectivity

KW - Scenario Discovery

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - 31

EP - 38

BT - Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flood Management

A2 - Simonovic, Slobodan P.

PB - Western University

T2 - 10th International Conference on Flood Management

Y2 - 20 May 2026 through 22 May 2026

ER -

Welsch NM , Warmink JJ , Hulscher SJMH , Augustijn DCM. Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change. In Simonovic SP, editor, Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Flood Management: Adapting to Global Change: Innovative Approaches to Flood Management and Resilience . Western University. 2026. p. 31-38

Finding vulnerabilities to high water levels and their drivers in an interconnected river delta under climate change

Abstract

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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Cite this