Forecasting

Elena Mocanu, Decebal Constantin Mocanu, Nikolaos G. Paterakis, Madeleine Gibescu

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Abstract

Local energy markets require various types of forecasting. Even if the existing methods are more and more accurate, there is a continuous search towards advance methods able to quantify the uncertainty of various electrical and price signals. Although a wide range of machine learning methods has been applied to electricity forecast, in this chapter, we will pass from linear models to state-of-the-art deep learning methods in an attempt to understand which are their most interesting challenges and limitations. The day-ahead electricity load forecast performance is analysed for five EU countries. Consequently, we perform a comparison between Ordinary Least Squares, Ridge Regression, Bayesian Ridge Regression, Kernel Ridge Regression, Support Vector Regression, Nearest Neighbors Regression, Gaussian Process, Decision Trees, AdaBoost, Random Trees, and dense Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP). Moreover, in an attempt to have accurate and fast methods with good generalisation power, we introduce sparse neural networks and sparse training methods for electricity forecasting through the means of sparse MLPs trained with the Sparse Evolutionary Training procedure (SET-MLP).
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLocal Electricity Markets
EditorsTiago Pinto, Zita Vale, Steve Widergren
PublisherElsevier
Chapter20
Edition1
ISBN (Print)9780128200742
Publication statusPublished - 9 Jul 2021

Keywords

  • Deep Learning (DL)
  • Energy prediction
  • Sparse training
  • Sparse multi layer perceptron
  • Decision trees
  • Support vector machines (SVMs)
  • Bayesian regression
  • 22/2 OA procedure

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