Abstract
Policy making for complex Social-Ecological Systems (SESs) is a multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision making process. Therefore, proper policy simulation in a SES should consider both the complex behavior of the system and the multi-stakeholders’ interventions into the system, which requires integrated methodological approaches. In this study, we simulate impacts of policy options on a farming community facing water scarcity in Rafsanjan, Iran, using an integrated modeling methodology combining an Agent Based Model (ABM) with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). First, the behavioral rules of farmers and the causal relations among environmental variables are captured with FCMs that are developed with both qualitative and quantitative data, i.e. farmers' knowledge and empirical data from studies. Then, an ABM is developed to model decisions and actions of farmers and simulate their impacts on overall groundwater use and emigration of farmers in this case study. Finally, the impacts of different policy options are simulated and compared with a baseline scenario. The results suggest that a policy of facilitating farmers' participation in management and control of their groundwater use leads to the highest reduction of groundwater use and would help to secure farmers’ activities in Rafsanjan. Our approach covers four main aspects that are crucial for policy simulation in SESs: 1) causal relationships, 2) feedback mechanisms, 3) social-spatial heterogeneity and 4) temporal dynamics. This approach is particularly useful for ex-ante policy options analysis.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 109482 |
| Pages (from-to) | 1-14 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Journal of environmental management |
| Volume | 250 |
| Early online date | 5 Sep 2019 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Nov 2019 |
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Keywords
- Agent-based modelling
- Fuzzy cognitive mapping
- Policy option analysis
- Social-ecological systems
- Water scarcity
- ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
Cite this
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From individual Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Agent Based Models : Modeling multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision-making for water scarcity. / Mehryar, S.; Sliuzas, R.; Schwarz, N.; Sharifi, Ali; van Maarseveen, M.F.A.M.
In: Journal of environmental management, Vol. 250, 109482, 15.11.2019, p. 1-14.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - From individual Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Agent Based Models
T2 - Modeling multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision-making for water scarcity
AU - Mehryar, S.
AU - Sliuzas, R.
AU - Schwarz, N.
AU - Sharifi, Ali
AU - van Maarseveen, M.F.A.M.
PY - 2019/11/15
Y1 - 2019/11/15
N2 - Policy making for complex Social-Ecological Systems (SESs) is a multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision making process. Therefore, proper policy simulation in a SES should consider both the complex behavior of the system and the multi-stakeholders’ interventions into the system, which requires integrated methodological approaches. In this study, we simulate impacts of policy options on a farming community facing water scarcity in Rafsanjan, Iran, using an integrated modeling methodology combining an Agent Based Model (ABM) with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). First, the behavioral rules of farmers and the causal relations among environmental variables are captured with FCMs that are developed with both qualitative and quantitative data, i.e. farmers' knowledge and empirical data from studies. Then, an ABM is developed to model decisions and actions of farmers and simulate their impacts on overall groundwater use and emigration of farmers in this case study. Finally, the impacts of different policy options are simulated and compared with a baseline scenario. The results suggest that a policy of facilitating farmers' participation in management and control of their groundwater use leads to the highest reduction of groundwater use and would help to secure farmers’ activities in Rafsanjan. Our approach covers four main aspects that are crucial for policy simulation in SESs: 1) causal relationships, 2) feedback mechanisms, 3) social-spatial heterogeneity and 4) temporal dynamics. This approach is particularly useful for ex-ante policy options analysis.
AB - Policy making for complex Social-Ecological Systems (SESs) is a multi-factorial and multi-stakeholder decision making process. Therefore, proper policy simulation in a SES should consider both the complex behavior of the system and the multi-stakeholders’ interventions into the system, which requires integrated methodological approaches. In this study, we simulate impacts of policy options on a farming community facing water scarcity in Rafsanjan, Iran, using an integrated modeling methodology combining an Agent Based Model (ABM) with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM). First, the behavioral rules of farmers and the causal relations among environmental variables are captured with FCMs that are developed with both qualitative and quantitative data, i.e. farmers' knowledge and empirical data from studies. Then, an ABM is developed to model decisions and actions of farmers and simulate their impacts on overall groundwater use and emigration of farmers in this case study. Finally, the impacts of different policy options are simulated and compared with a baseline scenario. The results suggest that a policy of facilitating farmers' participation in management and control of their groundwater use leads to the highest reduction of groundwater use and would help to secure farmers’ activities in Rafsanjan. Our approach covers four main aspects that are crucial for policy simulation in SESs: 1) causal relationships, 2) feedback mechanisms, 3) social-spatial heterogeneity and 4) temporal dynamics. This approach is particularly useful for ex-ante policy options analysis.
KW - Agent-based modelling
KW - Fuzzy cognitive mapping
KW - Policy option analysis
KW - Social-ecological systems
KW - Water scarcity
KW - ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
UR - https://ezproxy2.utwente.nl/login?url=https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109482
UR - https://ezproxy2.utwente.nl/login?url=https://library.itc.utwente.nl/login/2019/isi/mehryar_fro.pdf
U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109482
DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109482
M3 - Article
VL - 250
SP - 1
EP - 14
JO - Journal of environmental management
JF - Journal of environmental management
SN - 0301-4797
M1 - 109482
ER -