Future urban waterlogging simulation based on LULC forecast model: A case study in Haining City, China

As a consequence of rapid urbanization, the pattern of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) has changed, resulting in a significant increase in the risk of waterlogging. Understanding the relationship between LULC change and urban waterlogging plays an important role in disaster mitigation and prevention. Taking Haining City as an example, the LULC prediction model (CLUMondo) was used to obtain LULC simulation results for 2030.The hydrodynamic model (InfoWorks ICM) was used to simulate future urban waterlogging. The results were as follows: 1) Between 2005 and 2030, the changes in cultivated land and construction land were predicted to be the most obvious. The area of cultivated land was predicted to decrease by 26.62 km², and the construction land was predicted to increase by 25.17 km². 2) The overall distribution of waterlogged areas and the identified at-risk areas in Haining were shown to be relatively scattered. In 2030, urban waterlogging is predicted to be more serious than in 2020. 3) The reasons for the predicted change in waterlogging are closely related to the transformation of LULC, especially the transformation of cultivated land to construction land. The results provide a basis for scientific research and urban planning to reduce the risk of waterlogging.