Global value chains and carbon intensity across economic phases

This study examines the evolving relationship between global value chains and carbon emissions from 2000 to 2014 from a historical economic perspective, using a framework that integrates distinct economic phases and major global events. Based on panel data from 52 countries, the analysis identifies heterogeneous effects across three periods. Global value chain participation reduced carbon intensity during the Technology Diffusion phase (2001–2007) through efficiency improvements, increased carbon intensity during the Crisis Disruption phase (2008–2009) amid economic shocks, and exhibited a weakened impact during the Policy Realignment phase (2010–2014) under changing regulatory conditions. The results further reveal a U-shaped relationship, whereby initial global value chain integration lowers carbon intensity, while excessive participation leads to higher emissions. Additional analyses highlight differences between developed and developing economies, as well as evidence of regional convergence in Asia. Drawing on international trade, climate, and economic datasets, the study applies advanced econometric techniques to ensure robust estimation. The findings support differentiated policy implications, including development-adjusted carbon pricing, national green technology requirements, and enhanced corporate emissions transparency, offering integrated insights into balancing trade integration with climate objectives during the study period.