Identification and quantification of uncertainties in river models using expert elicitation

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify the sources of uncertainty that induce the largest uncertainties in the model outcomes and quantify this uncertainty using expert elicitation. Analysis of expert opinions showed that the Qh-relation and the roughness predictor of the main channel cause the largest uncertainties for design water level computations. For effect studies, the floodplain topography, weir formulation and discretisation of floodplain topography induces the largest uncertainty.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationNCR-days 2008
Subtitle of host publication10 years NCR, November 20–21
EditorsA.G. van Os, C.D. Erdbrink
PublisherNCR
Pages40-41
Publication statusPublished - 20 Nov 2008
EventNCR-days 2008 - Dalfsen, Netherlands
Duration: 20 Nov 200821 Nov 2008

Publication series

NameNCR publication
PublisherNCR
Number33-2008

Conference

ConferenceNCR-days 2008
CountryNetherlands
CityDalfsen
Period20/11/0821/11/08

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