Impacts of climate change on environmental and economic sustainability of flexible pavements across China

Pavements are susceptible to accelerated deterioration due to changing climate conditions, leading to increased maintenance and excess fuel consumption through pavement-vehicle interaction. China's diverse climates raise concerns about the environmental and economic sustainability of flexible pavements amid climate change and the effectiveness of preventative maintenance strategies. This study examines climate change's potential impacts on long-term pavement performance, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and costs, employing the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide method. The calibrated World Bank's Highway Development and Management Model 4 assesses the impacts of surface characteristics on vehicle fuel consumption. Life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis quantify GHG emissions and costs. Results reveal significant pavement deterioration in Southeast and Central China. Preventative maintenance strategies reduce fuel consumption, with GHG emissions and cost savings from smoother driving conditions outweighing those from maintenance. These insights stress the importance of proactive maintenance strategies for mitigating climate-induced deterioration and enhancing sustainability.