Impacts of Floods and Sea-Level Rise on Coasts and Eastuaries: A Probabilistic Bayesian Modeling Strategy

The ability of coasts to withstand floods and sea-level rise is investigated using a probabilistic Bayesian method. Fundamental principles of recently developed probabilistic computational methods for monotonic models are presented. Computational efficiency of these models and their coupling with a family of Monte Carlo (MC) methods are investigated for coastal estuaries and inter-connecting coasts. These integrated state-of-the-art computational modeling techniques are used in strategic planning and engineering management decision tools to evaluate impacts of storm hazards on estuaries and coasts in development of flood protection plans and assessment of damage to infrastructures.