One of the options to increase the energy efficiency of current electricity network is the use of a Virtual Power Plant. By using multiple small (micro)generators distributed over the country, electricity can be produced more efficiently since these small generators are more efficient and located where the energy is needed. In this paper we focus on micro Combined Heat and Power generators. For such generators, the production capacity is determined and limited by the heat demand. To keep the global electricity network stable, information about the production capacity of the heat-driven generators is required in advance. In this paper we present methods to perform heat demand prediction of individual households based on neural network techniques. Using different input sets and a so called sliding window, the quality of the predictions can be improved significantly. Simulations show that these improvements have a positive impact on controlling the distributed microgenerators.
|Title of host publication||IFAC Conference on Control Methodologies and Technology for Energy Efficiency (CMTEE 2010)|
|Subtitle of host publication||Vilamoura, Portugal, 29-31 March 2010|
|Place of Publication||Oxford|
|Publisher||Curran Associates Inc.|
|Number of pages||6|
|Publication status||Published - 29 Mar 2010|
|Event||IFAC Conference on Control Methodologies and Technology for Energy Efficiency, CMTEE 2010 - Vilamoura, Portugal|
Duration: 29 Mar 2010 → 31 Mar 2010
|Conference||IFAC Conference on Control Methodologies and Technology for Energy Efficiency, CMTEE 2010|
|Period||29/03/10 → 31/03/10|
- Prediction methods
- Energy management
- Neural network applications
Bakker, V., Bosman, M. G. C., Molderink, A., Hurink, J. L., & Smit, G. J. M. (2010). Improved Heat Demand Prediction of Individual Households. In IFAC Conference on Control Methodologies and Technology for Energy Efficiency (CMTEE 2010): Vilamoura, Portugal, 29-31 March 2010 (pp. 110-115). Oxford: Curran Associates Inc..