Improving daily stochastic streamflow prediction: comparison of novel hybrid data-mining algorithms

Khabat Khosravi, Ali Golkarian*, Martijn J. Booij, Rahim Barzegar, Wei Sun, Zaher Mundher Yaseen, Amir Mosavi

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

In the current paper, the efficiency of three new standalone data-mining algorithms [M5 Prime (M5P), Random Forest (RF), M5Rule (M5R)] and six novel hybrid algorithms of bagging (BA-M5P, BA-RF and BA-M5R) and Attribute Selected Classifier (ASC-M5P, ASC-RF and ASC-M5R) for streamflow prediction were assessed and compared with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model as a benchmark. The models used precipitation (P) and streamflow (Q) data from the period 1979–2012 for training and validation (70% and 30% of data, respectively). Different input combinations were prepared using both P and Q with different lag times. The best input combination proved to be that in which all of the the data were used (i.e. R and Q – with lag times). Overall, employing Q with different lag times proved to be more effective than using only P as input for streamflow prediction. Although all models showed very good predictive power, BA-M5P outperformed the other models.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1457-1474
Number of pages18
JournalHydrological sciences journal
Volume66
Issue number9
Early online date12 May 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Jul 2021

Keywords

  • Attribute Selected Classifier
  • M5P
  • M5Rule
  • Taleghan catchment
  • bagging
  • data mining
  • random forest
  • streamflow modelling

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