Incentivising, excluding, and enduring: Insular policy feedback in Lithuanian research assessment

Performance-based funding systems (PBFSs) are widely used to steer national research, but their effects vary significantly, particularly in countries with emerging research ecosystems. Relatively little attention has been paid to PBFSs and their concomitant policy dynamics in these countries, where the pressure to internationalise creates unique challenges. This paper presents a detailed study of the development of the Lithuanian PBFS from 2005 to 2022. Using a multi-level, multi-actor, and multi-issue framework, we combine policy analysis, semi-structured interviews, and bibliometric data to analyse the system’s evolution. Our findings reveal a dynamic of ‘insular policy feedback,’ where a concentrated scientific elite, operating across all levels of governance, shapes policy to its advantage. This results in predictable cycles of strategic gaming, such as the proliferation of domestic journals, by reactive and often inconsistent state countermeasures. The Lithuanian case serves as a model for understanding how concentrated power structures can undermine reform, offering a crucial insight for policymakers: meaningful reform must address the governance structures that empower performance metrics, not just the metrics themselves.