Incorporating unreliability of transit in transport demand models: theoretical and practical approach

Niels van Oort, Ties Brands, Erik de Romph, Jessica Aceves Flores

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Nowadays, transport demand models do not explicitly evaluate the impacts of service reliability of transit. Service reliability of transit systems is adversely experienced by users, as it causes additional travel time and unsecure arrival times. Because of this, travelers are likely to perceive a higher utility from higher reliable transport systems. In order to mimic and measure the impacts of service reliability on a transit demand model a three-step approach is proposed using intelligent transport systems data. The approach consists of determining the probabilistic distribution of transit trip times, defining demand patterns and estimating the average impacts of unreliability per passenger. This approach was successfully tested on the model of the city of Utrecht in The Netherlands. By adding service reliability as a variable parameter of transit systems the results of the demand model improved showing that the absolute difference between the observed and the estimated demand decreased by 18%. In addition, the proposed approach allows measuring the effects of expected changes in level of service reliability on traveler behavior. Finally, the authors have identified future research topics required to improve the estimation of those effects.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of 93th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, January 12-16 2014, Washington DC, USA
Place of PublicationWashington, DC, USA
PublisherTransportation Research Board (TRB)
Publication statusPublished - 12 Jan 2014
Event93th Transportation Research Board (TRB) Annual Meeting 2014 - Washington, United States
Duration: 12 Jan 201416 Jan 2014
Conference number: 93


Conference93th Transportation Research Board (TRB) Annual Meeting 2014
Country/TerritoryUnited States


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