Incorporation of NAM’s dynamic reservoir model into Cox rate-and-state model for monitoring of earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

Zhuldyzay Baki

doi:10.48550/arXiv.2409.18837

Incorporation of NAM’s dynamic reservoir model into Cox rate-and-state model for monitoring of earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

Zhuldyzay Baki^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Mathematics of Operations Research

Research output: Working paper › Preprint › Professional

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Abstract

Induced seismicity due to fluid extraction or injection has become a critical
issue in regions with extensive hydrocarbon production, such as the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This study examines the relationship between pore pressure changes from natural gas extraction and the resulting induced earthquakes in Groningen. We employ a Cox process-based rate-state model, integrating pore pressure data from NAM’s dynamic reservoir model. By combining geomechanical and statistical approaches, we aim to predict future seismic events and assess the accuracy of our model. Our methodology uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to estimate model parameters and forecast earthquake occurrences. The results highlight the significant impact of pressure changes on seismic activity, providing valuable insights for mitigating seismic risks in gas-producing regions.

Original language	English
Publisher	ArXiv.org
Pages	1-16
Number of pages	16
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2409.18837
Publication status	Published - 27 Sept 2024

Keywords

Induced seismicity
Pore pressure
Spatio-temporal point process
Cox process
Gas production
Rate-and-state model

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10.48550/arXiv.2409.18837Licence: CC BY

Article-v1Final published version, 428 KBLicence: CC BY

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title = "Incorporation of NAM{\textquoteright}s dynamic reservoir model into Cox rate-and-state model for monitoring of earthquakes in the Groningen gas field",

abstract = "Induced seismicity due to fluid extraction or injection has become a critical issue in regions with extensive hydrocarbon production, such as the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This study examines the relationship between pore pressure changes from natural gas extraction and the resulting induced earthquakes in Groningen. We employ a Cox process-based rate-state model, integrating pore pressure data from NAM{\textquoteright}s dynamic reservoir model. By combining geomechanical and statistical approaches, we aim to predict future seismic events and assess the accuracy of our model. Our methodology uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to estimate model parameters and forecast earthquake occurrences. The results highlight the significant impact of pressure changes on seismic activity, providing valuable insights for mitigating seismic risks in gas-producing regions.",

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N2 - Induced seismicity due to fluid extraction or injection has become a critical issue in regions with extensive hydrocarbon production, such as the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This study examines the relationship between pore pressure changes from natural gas extraction and the resulting induced earthquakes in Groningen. We employ a Cox process-based rate-state model, integrating pore pressure data from NAM’s dynamic reservoir model. By combining geomechanical and statistical approaches, we aim to predict future seismic events and assess the accuracy of our model. Our methodology uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to estimate model parameters and forecast earthquake occurrences. The results highlight the significant impact of pressure changes on seismic activity, providing valuable insights for mitigating seismic risks in gas-producing regions.

AB - Induced seismicity due to fluid extraction or injection has become a critical issue in regions with extensive hydrocarbon production, such as the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This study examines the relationship between pore pressure changes from natural gas extraction and the resulting induced earthquakes in Groningen. We employ a Cox process-based rate-state model, integrating pore pressure data from NAM’s dynamic reservoir model. By combining geomechanical and statistical approaches, we aim to predict future seismic events and assess the accuracy of our model. Our methodology uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to estimate model parameters and forecast earthquake occurrences. The results highlight the significant impact of pressure changes on seismic activity, providing valuable insights for mitigating seismic risks in gas-producing regions.

KW - Induced seismicity

KW - Pore pressure

KW - Spatio-temporal point process

KW - Cox process

KW - Gas production

KW - Rate-and-state model

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DO - 10.48550/arXiv.2409.18837

M3 - Preprint

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EP - 16

BT - Incorporation of NAM’s dynamic reservoir model into Cox rate-and-state model for monitoring of earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

PB - ArXiv.org

ER -

Incorporation of NAM’s dynamic reservoir model into Cox rate-and-state model for monitoring of earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

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Keywords

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