TY - JOUR
T1 - Infrastructure investment planning through scenario-based system-of-systems modelling
AU - Asgarpour, Sahand
AU - Hartmann, Andreas
AU - Gkiotsalitis, Konstantinos
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Dutch Research Council (NWO)) and Next Generation Infrastructures (NGInfra) under Grant 439.16.803. The authors would like to thank the experts of the infrastructure agencies involved in the knowledge and network organisation Next Generation Infrastructure (NGInfra) for their contributions to the research. The authors would also like to show their gratitude to Harmen Zandman, Arjan Olsthoorn, and Maarten de Jonge from ProRail for facilitating access to data and valuable knowledge exchange.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2023/7/4
Y1 - 2023/7/4
N2 - The socioeconomic, technological, and environmental needs and developments call for effective infrastructure investment planning. Because infrastructures are interdependent, this requires the entanglement of their demand and performance development. We propose a scenario-based system-of-systems model to support strategic decision-makers in evaluating the effects of planned investments on transport infrastructure demand and performance under different plausible futures and identifying required investments across transport infrastructure sectors considering interdependencies. The model estimates freight and passenger demand and their consequent emission and energy performance for rail, road, and waterway networks. Through a case study, we show how the model can assist decision-makers in tracing the effects of silo-based planned investments on interconnected infrastructures. Moreover, the case demonstrates how possible investments can be detected to ensure desirable infrastructure performance. Finally, it presents how a better understanding can be created about the impacts of transport demand and energy transition policies on the performance of infrastructure system-of-systems.
AB - The socioeconomic, technological, and environmental needs and developments call for effective infrastructure investment planning. Because infrastructures are interdependent, this requires the entanglement of their demand and performance development. We propose a scenario-based system-of-systems model to support strategic decision-makers in evaluating the effects of planned investments on transport infrastructure demand and performance under different plausible futures and identifying required investments across transport infrastructure sectors considering interdependencies. The model estimates freight and passenger demand and their consequent emission and energy performance for rail, road, and waterway networks. Through a case study, we show how the model can assist decision-makers in tracing the effects of silo-based planned investments on interconnected infrastructures. Moreover, the case demonstrates how possible investments can be detected to ensure desirable infrastructure performance. Finally, it presents how a better understanding can be created about the impacts of transport demand and energy transition policies on the performance of infrastructure system-of-systems.
KW - demand estimation
KW - infrastructure interdependency
KW - Infrastructure investment planning
KW - performance
KW - system-of-systems
KW - UT-Hybrid-D
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85153173743&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/03081060.2023.2196987
DO - 10.1080/03081060.2023.2196987
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85153173743
SN - 0308-1060
VL - 46
SP - 527
EP - 572
JO - Transportation planning and technology
JF - Transportation planning and technology
IS - 5
ER -
