TY - JOUR
T1 - Innovative polygon trend analysis of monthly precipitation (1952–2015) in the Hindukush‐Karakoram‐Himalaya river basins of Pakistan
AU - Ahmed, Naveed
AU - Lü, Haishen
AU - Booij, Martijn J.
AU - Wang, Genxu
AU - Marhaento, Hero
AU - Bhat, Mohd Sultan
AU - Adnan, Shahzada
PY - 2022/12/30
Y1 - 2022/12/30
N2 - The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH) mountainous range supplies water to 10 river basins serving eight countries. The present study focuses on the river basins located within the HKH region in Pakistan. The modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) was used to split the research region into 13 sub-basins. The Mann–Kendall, Sen's slope, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods were used for the monthly precipitation time series. The Shyok sub-basin (central Karakoram) experienced rising trends for all seasons, while the southwestern Karakoram (Hunza) showed a rising trend only for the winter. The Hindukush Mountain Range feeds five sub-basins (Gilgit, Chitral, Swat, Kabul, and Kurram). The Gilgit and Kurram sub-basins observed an upward trend for all seasons. A falling trend in spring and transition from spring (falling) to summer (rising) was observed for the Swat and Kabul sub-basins. The Chitral sub-basin received rising precipitation in spring, summer, and autumn, whereas no trend was observed during winter. In the southern Himalayas (Kanshi and Jhelum), no trend was observed in winter and autumn and a falling trend in spring and summer. The Kunhar sub-basin (southern Himalaya) showed rising trends in winter, spring, and autumn. In contrast, the Soan sub-basin (eastern Himalaya) has no trend in spring, and other seasons show rising trends. The sub-basin Upper Indus experienced a rising trend for autumn, winter, and summer, while a downward trend was observed in spring. The IPTA and ITA approaches are much more sensitive than the Mann–Kendall method in detecting trends. Although the innovative methods are mostly compatible with each other (90%), the IPTA presents additional information about trend transitions between successive parts of the time series. The results presented in this study are an advancement in the investigations made so far in this region and will help to understand the climate and hydrology of this region.
AB - The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayas (HKH) mountainous range supplies water to 10 river basins serving eight countries. The present study focuses on the river basins located within the HKH region in Pakistan. The modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) was used to split the research region into 13 sub-basins. The Mann–Kendall, Sen's slope, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods were used for the monthly precipitation time series. The Shyok sub-basin (central Karakoram) experienced rising trends for all seasons, while the southwestern Karakoram (Hunza) showed a rising trend only for the winter. The Hindukush Mountain Range feeds five sub-basins (Gilgit, Chitral, Swat, Kabul, and Kurram). The Gilgit and Kurram sub-basins observed an upward trend for all seasons. A falling trend in spring and transition from spring (falling) to summer (rising) was observed for the Swat and Kabul sub-basins. The Chitral sub-basin received rising precipitation in spring, summer, and autumn, whereas no trend was observed during winter. In the southern Himalayas (Kanshi and Jhelum), no trend was observed in winter and autumn and a falling trend in spring and summer. The Kunhar sub-basin (southern Himalaya) showed rising trends in winter, spring, and autumn. In contrast, the Soan sub-basin (eastern Himalaya) has no trend in spring, and other seasons show rising trends. The sub-basin Upper Indus experienced a rising trend for autumn, winter, and summer, while a downward trend was observed in spring. The IPTA and ITA approaches are much more sensitive than the Mann–Kendall method in detecting trends. Although the innovative methods are mostly compatible with each other (90%), the IPTA presents additional information about trend transitions between successive parts of the time series. The results presented in this study are an advancement in the investigations made so far in this region and will help to understand the climate and hydrology of this region.
KW - 2023 OA procedure
U2 - 10.1002/joc.7875
DO - 10.1002/joc.7875
M3 - Article
SN - 0899-8418
VL - 42
SP - 9967
EP - 9993
JO - International journal of climatology
JF - International journal of climatology
IS - 16
ER -
