Leveraging geospatial information to map perceived tenure insecurity in urban deprivation areas

Increasing tenure security is essential for promoting safe and inclusive urban development and achieving Sustainable Development Goals. However, assessment of tenure security relies on conventional census and survey statistics, which often fail to capture the dimension of perceived tenure insecurity. This perceived tenure insecurity is crucial as it influences local engagement and the effectiveness of policies. In many regions, particularly in the Global South, these conventional methods lack the necessary data to adequately measure perceived tenure insecurity. This study first used household survey data to derive variations in perceived tenure insecurity and then explored the potential of Very-High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and spatial data to assess these variations in urban deprived areas. Focusing on the city of Kigali, Rwanda, the study collected household survey data, which were analysed using Multiple Correspondence Analysis to capture variations of perceived tenure insecurity. In addition, VHR satellite imagery and spatial datasets were analysed to characterize urban deprivation. Finally, a Random Forest regression model was used to assess the relationship between variations of perceived tenure insecurity and the spatial characteristics of urban deprived areas. The findings highlight the potential of geospatial information to estimate variations in perceived tenure insecurity within urban deprived contexts. These insights can inform evidence-based decision-making by municipalities and stakeholders in urban development initiatives.