Linking coastal evolution and super storm dune erosion forecasts

To assess the long-term safety of a dune-protected coastal area, models are needed for forecasting both long-term coastal evolution and dune erosion due to the occurrence of a super storm. In long-term model forecasts, however, information on dune shape is lost. Explorative calculations show that the output of the event-scale dune erosion model is quite sensitive to the dune height. For a given super storm, a higher dune leads to a larger forecasted erosion volume, but to a less land inward position of the erosion line (the line that indicates how far erosion is expected to reach land inward). Clearly, a solution should be found for adding information on realistic dune shapes to the long-term coastal evolution forecast. EOF decomposition of observed dune profiles provides simple but realistic dune shape functions that could be used to redistribute forecasted dune volumes into realistic dune shapes.