Machine condition prognosis based on regression trees and one‐step‐ahead prediction

V.T. Tran, Bo-Suk Yang, Myung-Suck Oh, Andy Chit Chiow Tan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

71 Citations (Scopus)


Predicting the degradation of working conditions of machinery and trending of fault propagation before they reach the alarm or failure threshold is extremely important in industry to fully utilize the machine production capacity. This paper proposes a method to predict the future conditions of machines based on one-step-ahead prediction of time-series forecasting techniques and regression trees. In this study, the embedding dimension is firstly estimated in order to determine the necessarily available observations for predicting the next value in the future. This value is subsequently utilized for the predictor which is generated by using regression tree technique. Real trending data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine are employed for evaluating the proposed method. The results indicate that the proposed method offers a potential for machine condition prognosis.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1179‐1193
JournalMechanical systems and signal processing
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Externally publishedYes


  • Embedding dimension
  • Regression trees
  • Prognosis
  • Time-series forecasting


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