Modeling Risk-Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects

Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas, Saad H.S. Al-Jibouri, Johannes I.M. Halman, Frits A. van Tol

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Knowledge on failure events and their associated factors, gained from past construction projects, is regarded as potentially extremely useful in risk management. However, a number of circumstances are constraining its wider use. Such knowledge is usually scarce, seldom documented, and even unavailable when it is required. Further, there exists a lack of proven methods to integrate and analyze it in a cost-effective way. This article addresses possible options to overcome these difficulties. Focusing on limited but critical potential failure events, the article demonstrates how knowledge on a number of important potential failure events in tunnel works can be integrated. The problem of unavailable or incomplete information was addressed by gathering judgments from a group of experts. The elicited expert knowledge consisted of failure scenarios and associated probabilistic information. This information was integrated using Bayesian belief-networks-based models that were first customized in order to deal with the expected divergence in judgments caused by epistemic uncertainty of risks. The work described in the article shows that the developed models that integrate risk-related knowledge provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)323-339
JournalRisk analysis
Volume34
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 19 Jul 2014

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Risk Management
Bayesian networks
Risk management
Uncertainty
Tunnels
Costs and Cost Analysis
Costs

Keywords

  • IR-87426
  • METIS-298014

Cite this

Chivatá Cárdenas, I., Al-Jibouri, S. H. S., Halman, J. I. M., & van Tol, F. A. (2014). Modeling Risk-Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects. Risk analysis, 34(2), 323-339. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12094
Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen ; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S. ; Halman, Johannes I.M. ; van Tol, Frits A. / Modeling Risk-Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects. In: Risk analysis. 2014 ; Vol. 34, No. 2. pp. 323-339.
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Chivatá Cárdenas, I, Al-Jibouri, SHS, Halman, JIM & van Tol, FA 2014, 'Modeling Risk-Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects' Risk analysis, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 323-339. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12094

Modeling Risk-Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects. / Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; van Tol, Frits A.

In: Risk analysis, Vol. 34, No. 2, 19.07.2014, p. 323-339.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen

AU - Al-Jibouri, Saad H.S.

AU - Halman, Johannes I.M.

AU - van Tol, Frits A.

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Chivatá Cárdenas I, Al-Jibouri SHS, Halman JIM, van Tol FA. Modeling Risk-Related Knowledge in Tunneling Projects. Risk analysis. 2014 Jul 19;34(2):323-339. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12094