Modeling strategies to analyse longitudinal biomarker data: An illustration on predicting immunotherapy non-response in non-small cell lung cancer

Frederik A. van Delft, Milou Schuurbiers, Mirte Muller, Sjaak A. Burgers, Huub H. van Rossum, Maarten J. IJzerman, Hendrik Koffijberg*, Michel M. van den Heuvel

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Serum tumor markers acquired through a blood draw are known to reflect tumor activity. Their non-invasive nature allows for more frequent testing compared to traditional imaging methods used for response evaluations. Our study aims to compare nine prediction methods to accurately, and with a low false positive rate, predict progressive disease despite treatment (i.e. non-response) using longitudinal tumor biomarker data. Bi-weekly measurements of CYFRA, CA-125, CEA, NSE, and SCC were available from a cohort of 412 advanced stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated up to two years with immune checkpoint inhibitors. Serum tumor marker measurements from the first six weeks after treatment initiation were used to predict treatment response at 6 months. Nine models with varying complexity were evaluated in this study, showing how longitudinal biomarker data can be used to predict non-response to immunotherapy in NSCLC patients.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere10932
JournalHeliyon
Volume8
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2022

Keywords

  • CA-125
  • CEA
  • CYFRA
  • Immunotherapy
  • NSCLC
  • NSE
  • Response
  • SCC
  • Serum tumor markers
  • UT-Hybrid-D

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