Modelling the heat transition

Muhammad Ahsan, Leander van der Bijl, Shreehari Bodas, Fabio Buccoliero, Yanfei Chen, Joaquim M. C. Correia, Tsega Khasay Gebretekle, Leila Hashemi, Joris van der Hijden, Francesca Leonardi, Gabriel Lord, Juan E. Machado Martinez, Zhirui Tang, Leoni Winschermann, Jialing Yu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterAcademic


The Dutch government is committed to reducing its dependence on fuel imports and promoting sustainable practices, which has led to plans to move away from
gas-powered heating systems towards alternative heat sources such as district heating or electric heat pumps. In this heat transition, DHM provides advice and leadership for investment decisions, particularly at the municipal level. Key considerations include the transition costs, choice of heat commodity, and necessary infrastructure.
This project explores three decision-making models that aim to minimize social costs in an objective manner: Monte Carlo simulations, energy hubs, and mathematical programs. The results of this study can be used as a starting point for further research to support a sustainable and cost-effective heat transition.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationScientific Proceedings of the Study Group Mathematics with Industry SWI 2023
EditorsJulian Koellermeier, Pieter Tibboel, Stephan Trenn
PublisherStudiegroep Wiskunde met de Industrie
Pages37 - 92
Number of pages56
Publication statusPublished - 2023
EventSWI 2023 - Academy Building University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
Duration: 30 Jan 20233 Feb 2023


ConferenceSWI 2023
Abbreviated titleSWI 2023


  • heat transition
  • cost minimization
  • Monte Carlo methods
  • energy hubs
  • mixed integer program


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