Modelling the impacts of urban upgrading onto population dynamics in informal settlements

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Abstract

Nowadays the biggest part of urbanization is taking place in cities of the global south, where urban development often occurs as informal settlements. Thus, it is crucial to envision possible urban futures for these highly dynamic urban areas. Urban upgrading is discussed and already implemented in order to improve livelihood conditions in these areas. However, urban upgrading might lead to unexpected effects such as increased segregation. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the effects of improved infrastructure provision onto residential mobility and resulting spatial patterns of population distribution. For a better understanding of the on-going urbanization processes and for informing local policy makers, suitable modelling tools that make use of up to date spatial information are needed. In the paper, a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the development of informal settlements will be presented. The ABM is being developed for the context of Sub-Saharan Africa, which shows both the highest annual urban growth rate and the highest slum growth rate in the world (UN Habitat 2006). It will be used to derive policy scenarios for urban upgrading in informal settlements.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationUrban Futures. Multiple visions, paths and constructions
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 14th N-AERUS/GISDECO Conference, 12-14 September 2013, Enschede, Netherlands
EditorsJ. Martinez, R. Sliuzas, R.M. Bennett
Place of PublicationEnschede
PublisherUniversity of Twente
Number of pages13
ISBN (Print)978-90-365-0747-9
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event14th N-AERUS/GISDECO Conference 2013 : Urban Futures: Multiple Visions, Paths and Constructions - Faculty ITC, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands
Duration: 12 Sept 201314 Sept 2013
Conference number: 14

Conference

Conference14th N-AERUS/GISDECO Conference 2013
Country/TerritoryNetherlands
CityEnschede
Period12/09/1314/09/13

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