Modelling the impacts of urban upgrading onto population dynamics in informal settlements

Nowadays the biggest part of urbanization is taking place in cities of the global south, where urban development often occurs as informal settlements. Thus, it is crucial to envision possible urban futures for these highly dynamic urban areas. Urban upgrading is discussed and already implemented in order to improve livelihood conditions in these areas. However, urban upgrading might lead to unexpected effects such as increased segregation. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the effects of improved infrastructure provision onto residential mobility and resulting spatial patterns of population distribution. For a better understanding of the on-going urbanization processes and for informing local policy makers, suitable modelling tools that make use of up to date spatial information are needed. In the paper, a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the development of informal settlements will be presented. The ABM is being developed for the context of Sub-Saharan Africa, which shows both the highest annual urban growth rate and the highest slum growth rate in the world (UN Habitat 2006). It will be used to derive policy scenarios for urban upgrading in informal settlements.