Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China

Tao Liu, Zhoupeng Ren, Yonghui Zhang, Baixiang Feng, Hualiang Lin, Jianpeng Xiao, Weilin Zeng, Xing Li, Zhihao Li, S. Rutherford, Yanjun Xu, Shao Lin, P.C. Nasca, Yaodong Du, Jinfeng Wang, Cunrui Huang, P. Jia, Wenjun Ma

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Abstract

(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

Original languageEnglish
Article number376
Number of pages17
JournalInternational journal of environmental research and public health
Volume16
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

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Climate Change
China
Hot Temperature
Mortality
Population
Global Warming
Health
Thermotolerance
Temperature

Keywords

  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
  • ITC-GOLD

Cite this

Liu, Tao ; Ren, Zhoupeng ; Zhang, Yonghui ; Feng, Baixiang ; Lin, Hualiang ; Xiao, Jianpeng ; Zeng, Weilin ; Li, Xing ; Li, Zhihao ; Rutherford, S. ; Xu, Yanjun ; Lin, Shao ; Nasca, P.C. ; Du, Yaodong ; Wang, Jinfeng ; Huang, Cunrui ; Jia, P. ; Ma, Wenjun. / Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China. In: International journal of environmental research and public health. 2019 ; Vol. 16, No. 3.
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title = "Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China",
abstract = "(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75{\%} for the total population and 20{\%} for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.",
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author = "Tao Liu and Zhoupeng Ren and Yonghui Zhang and Baixiang Feng and Hualiang Lin and Jianpeng Xiao and Weilin Zeng and Xing Li and Zhihao Li and S. Rutherford and Yanjun Xu and Shao Lin and P.C. Nasca and Yaodong Du and Jinfeng Wang and Cunrui Huang and P. Jia and Wenjun Ma",
year = "2019",
doi = "10.3390/ijerph16030376",
language = "English",
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journal = "International journal of environmental research and public health",
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Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China. / Liu, Tao; Ren, Zhoupeng; Zhang, Yonghui; Feng, Baixiang; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Li, Zhihao; Rutherford, S.; Xu, Yanjun; Lin, Shao; Nasca, P.C.; Du, Yaodong; Wang, Jinfeng; Huang, Cunrui; Jia, P.; Ma, Wenjun.

In: International journal of environmental research and public health, Vol. 16, No. 3, 376, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China

AU - Liu, Tao

AU - Ren, Zhoupeng

AU - Zhang, Yonghui

AU - Feng, Baixiang

AU - Lin, Hualiang

AU - Xiao, Jianpeng

AU - Zeng, Weilin

AU - Li, Xing

AU - Li, Zhihao

AU - Rutherford, S.

AU - Xu, Yanjun

AU - Lin, Shao

AU - Nasca, P.C.

AU - Du, Yaodong

AU - Wang, Jinfeng

AU - Huang, Cunrui

AU - Jia, P.

AU - Ma, Wenjun

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - (1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

AB - (1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

KW - ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE

KW - ITC-GOLD

UR - https://ezproxy2.utwente.nl/login?url=https://library.itc.utwente.nl/login/2019/isi/jia_mod.pdf

U2 - 10.3390/ijerph16030376

DO - 10.3390/ijerph16030376

M3 - Article

VL - 16

JO - International journal of environmental research and public health

JF - International journal of environmental research and public health

SN - 1661-7827

IS - 3

M1 - 376

ER -