Mosquito-borne diseases: advances in modelling climate-change impacts

N.B. Tjaden, C. Caminade, Carl Beierkuhnlein, Stephanie Margarete Thomas*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

44 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases are on the rise globally. As the consequences of climate change are becoming evident, climate-based models of disease risk are of growing importance. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in both mechanistic and correlative disease modelling, the data driving these models, the vectors and diseases covered, and climate models applied to assess future risk. We find that modelling techniques have advanced considerably, especially in terms of using ensembles of climate models and scenarios. Effects of extreme events, precipitation regimes, and seasonality on diseases are still poorly studied. Thorough validation of models is still a challenge and is complicated by a lack of field and laboratory data. On a larger scale, the main challenges today lie in cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral transfer of data and methods.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)227-245
Number of pages18
JournalTrends in Parasitology
Volume34
Issue number3
Early online date8 Dec 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2018
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • climate change
  • hazard
  • model
  • risk
  • Vector-borne diseases
  • epidemiology
  • GeoHealth
  • geo-health
  • ITC-CV

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