Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk

Research output: Contribution to conferenceOtherOther research output

Abstract

Mapping spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk serves a very useful purpose of improving public health intervention and protection. Smooth disease risk mapping can help to reduce errors and biases due to demographic heterogeneity in predicting malaria risk using the reported number of malaria cases in space and time. This study presents a new statistical model that is expanded from the existing area-to-point (ATP) kriging models in spatial statistics to map spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk in southern Vietnam. The essence of the new model is a Poisson regression ATP model that has fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects link disease data and environmental data at various measurement and observation scales. The fixed effects are instead approximated by maximum-entropy approximation. This advancement is to minimize the ecological biases when disease data are only available from national routine surveillance at small areas. The random effects which are spatial-temporally auto-correlated are predicted by using simple ATP kriging. The results of mapping malaria risk at district level using data at provincial level are validated using areal cross-validation. Compare to the results from the same case study but using common ATP log-linear model, the new model is superior in terms of minimizing prediction biases. The case study of mapping malaria risk demonstrates the superiority of the new model in mapping disease risk using data at different scales. Moreover, the model allows the uncertainty about the mapping outcome to be quantified.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Event28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society - Center for Research in Mathematics (CIMAT), Guanajuato, Mexico
Duration: 16 Jul 201821 Jul 2018
Conference number: 28
http://ties2018.eventos.cimat.mx/node/767

Conference

Conference28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society
Abbreviated titleTIES 2018
CountryMexico
CityGuanajuato
Period16/07/1821/07/18
Internet address

Fingerprint

malaria
kriging
temporal variation
entropy
public health
effect
prediction

Cite this

Truong, P. (2018). Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk. 28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society , Guanajuato, Mexico.
Truong, Phuong . / Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk. 28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society , Guanajuato, Mexico.
@conference{0f2c53a560824d8c8923d2ed39df66fa,
title = "Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk",
abstract = "Mapping spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk serves a very useful purpose of improving public health intervention and protection. Smooth disease risk mapping can help to reduce errors and biases due to demographic heterogeneity in predicting malaria risk using the reported number of malaria cases in space and time. This study presents a new statistical model that is expanded from the existing area-to-point (ATP) kriging models in spatial statistics to map spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk in southern Vietnam. The essence of the new model is a Poisson regression ATP model that has fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects link disease data and environmental data at various measurement and observation scales. The fixed effects are instead approximated by maximum-entropy approximation. This advancement is to minimize the ecological biases when disease data are only available from national routine surveillance at small areas. The random effects which are spatial-temporally auto-correlated are predicted by using simple ATP kriging. The results of mapping malaria risk at district level using data at provincial level are validated using areal cross-validation. Compare to the results from the same case study but using common ATP log-linear model, the new model is superior in terms of minimizing prediction biases. The case study of mapping malaria risk demonstrates the superiority of the new model in mapping disease risk using data at different scales. Moreover, the model allows the uncertainty about the mapping outcome to be quantified.",
author = "Phuong Truong",
year = "2018",
language = "English",
note = "28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society , TIES 2018 ; Conference date: 16-07-2018 Through 21-07-2018",
url = "http://ties2018.eventos.cimat.mx/node/767",

}

Truong, P 2018, 'Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk' 28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society , Guanajuato, Mexico, 16/07/18 - 21/07/18, .

Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk. / Truong, Phuong .

2018. 28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society , Guanajuato, Mexico.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceOtherOther research output

TY - CONF

T1 - Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk

AU - Truong, Phuong

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Mapping spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk serves a very useful purpose of improving public health intervention and protection. Smooth disease risk mapping can help to reduce errors and biases due to demographic heterogeneity in predicting malaria risk using the reported number of malaria cases in space and time. This study presents a new statistical model that is expanded from the existing area-to-point (ATP) kriging models in spatial statistics to map spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk in southern Vietnam. The essence of the new model is a Poisson regression ATP model that has fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects link disease data and environmental data at various measurement and observation scales. The fixed effects are instead approximated by maximum-entropy approximation. This advancement is to minimize the ecological biases when disease data are only available from national routine surveillance at small areas. The random effects which are spatial-temporally auto-correlated are predicted by using simple ATP kriging. The results of mapping malaria risk at district level using data at provincial level are validated using areal cross-validation. Compare to the results from the same case study but using common ATP log-linear model, the new model is superior in terms of minimizing prediction biases. The case study of mapping malaria risk demonstrates the superiority of the new model in mapping disease risk using data at different scales. Moreover, the model allows the uncertainty about the mapping outcome to be quantified.

AB - Mapping spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk serves a very useful purpose of improving public health intervention and protection. Smooth disease risk mapping can help to reduce errors and biases due to demographic heterogeneity in predicting malaria risk using the reported number of malaria cases in space and time. This study presents a new statistical model that is expanded from the existing area-to-point (ATP) kriging models in spatial statistics to map spatial-temporal variations of malaria risk in southern Vietnam. The essence of the new model is a Poisson regression ATP model that has fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects link disease data and environmental data at various measurement and observation scales. The fixed effects are instead approximated by maximum-entropy approximation. This advancement is to minimize the ecological biases when disease data are only available from national routine surveillance at small areas. The random effects which are spatial-temporally auto-correlated are predicted by using simple ATP kriging. The results of mapping malaria risk at district level using data at provincial level are validated using areal cross-validation. Compare to the results from the same case study but using common ATP log-linear model, the new model is superior in terms of minimizing prediction biases. The case study of mapping malaria risk demonstrates the superiority of the new model in mapping disease risk using data at different scales. Moreover, the model allows the uncertainty about the mapping outcome to be quantified.

UR - http://ties2018.eventos.cimat.mx/node/938

UR - https://ezproxy2.utwente.nl/login?url=https://webapps.itc.utwente.nl/library/2018/pres/truong_non_ppt.pdf

M3 - Other

ER -

Truong P. Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk. 2018. 28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society , Guanajuato, Mexico.