TY - JOUR
T1 - On the origin of exponential growth in induced earthquakes in Groningen
AU - van Putten, Maurice H.P.M.
AU - van Putten, Anton F.P.
AU - van Putten, Michael J.A.M.
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event < M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions.
AB - The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event < M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions.
KW - 2023 OA procedure
U2 - 10.12989/eas.2016.11.5.861
DO - 10.12989/eas.2016.11.5.861
M3 - Article
SN - 2092-7614
VL - 11
SP - 861
EP - 871
JO - Earthquakes and structures
JF - Earthquakes and structures
IS - 5
ER -