On the origin of exponential growth in induced earthquakes in Groningen

Maurice H.P.M. van Putten, Anton F.P. van Putten, Michael J.A.M. van Putten

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The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event < M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)861-871
JournalEarthquakes and structures
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2016


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