On the Semantics of Risk Propagation

Mattia Fumagalli; Gal Engelberg; Tiago Prince Sales; Ítalo José Da Silva Oliveira; Dan Klein; Pnina Soffer; Riccardo Baratella; Giancarlo Guizzardi

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

On the Semantics of Risk Propagation

Mattia Fumagalli
, Gal Engelberg
, Tiago Prince Sales
, Ítalo José Da Silva Oliveira
, Dan Klein
, Pnina Soffer
, Riccardo Baratella
, Giancarlo Guizzardi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

354 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Risk propagation encompasses a plethora of techniques for analyzing how risk “spreads” in a given system. Albeit commonly used in technical literature, the very notion of risk propagation turns out to be a conceptually imprecise and overloaded one. This might also explain the multitude of modeling solutions that have been proposed in the literature. Having a clear understanding of what exactly risk is, how it be quantified, and in what sense it can be propagated is fundamental for devising high-quality risk assessment and decision-making solutions. In this paper, we exploit a previous well-established work about the nature of risk and related notions with the goal of providing a proper interpretation of the different notions of risk propagation, as well as revealing and harmonizing the alternative semantics for the links used in common risk propagation graphs. Finally, we discuss how these results can be leveraged in practice to model risk propagation scenarios.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World
Subtitle of host publication	17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Corfu, Greece, May 23–26, 2023, Proceedings
Editors	Selmin Nurcan, Andreas L. Opdahl, Haralambos Mouratidis, Aggeliki Tsohou
Pages	69-86
Number of pages	18
ISBN (Electronic)	978-3-031-33080-3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5
Publication status	Published - 23 May 2023
Event	17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Science, RCIS 2023 - Corfu, Greece Duration: 23 May 2023 → 26 Aug 2023 Conference number: 17 https://www.rcis-conf.com/rcis2023/

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing
Publisher	Springer
Volume	476
ISSN (Electronic)	1865-1356

Conference

Conference	17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Science, RCIS 2023
Abbreviated title	RCIS 2023
Country/Territory	Greece
City	Corfu
Period	23/05/23 → 26/08/23
Internet address	https://www.rcis-conf.com/rcis2023/

Keywords

2023 OA procedure

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

177AE0CA-CFE5-11ED-BC5F-A93038BC4FB8Final published version, 1.31 MBLicence: Taverne

9 Citations
2 Article
1 Conference contribution

Legal powers, subjections, disabilities, and immunities: Ontological analysis and modeling patterns
Griffo, C., Almeida, J. P. A., Lima, J. A. O., Sales, T. P. & Guizzardi, G., 1 Nov 2023, In: Data & knowledge engineering. 148, 18 p., 102219.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Open Access
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16 Link opens in a new tab Citations (Scopus)

242 Downloads (Pure)
Thinking Fast and Slow in Software Engineering
Guizzardi, G., Pastor, O. & Storey, V. C., 1 Dec 2023, In: IEEE software. 40, 6, p. 139-142 4 p.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Open Access
File
8 Link opens in a new tab Citations (Scopus)

102 Downloads (Pure)
Towards Semantics for Abstractions in Ontology-Driven Conceptual Modeling
Romanenko, E., Kutz, O., Calvanese, D. & Guizzardi, G., 26 Oct 2023, Advances in Conceptual Modeling - ER 2023 Workshops, CMLS, CMOMM4FAIR, EmpER, JUSMOD, OntoCom, QUAMES, and SmartFood, Lisbon, Portugal, November 6-9, 2023, Proceedings. Sales, T. P., Araújo, J., Borbinha, J. & Guizzardi, G. (eds.). Switzerland: Springer, Vol. 14319. p. 199-209 11 p. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; vol. 14319).
Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

Open Access
File
4 Link opens in a new tab Citations (Scopus)

159 Downloads (Pure)

Cite this

Fumagalli, M., Engelberg, G., Prince Sales, T., Da Silva Oliveira, Í. J., Klein, D., Soffer, P., Baratella, R., & Guizzardi, G. (2023). On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. In S. Nurcan, A. L. Opdahl, H. Mouratidis, & A. Tsohou (Eds.), Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World: 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Corfu, Greece, May 23–26, 2023, Proceedings (pp. 69-86). (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing; Vol. 476). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

Fumagalli, Mattia ; Engelberg, Gal ; Prince Sales, Tiago et al. / On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World: 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Corfu, Greece, May 23–26, 2023, Proceedings. editor / Selmin Nurcan ; Andreas L. Opdahl ; Haralambos Mouratidis ; Aggeliki Tsohou. 2023. pp. 69-86 (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing).

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title = "On the Semantics of Risk Propagation",

abstract = "Risk propagation encompasses a plethora of techniques for analyzing how risk “spreads” in a given system. Albeit commonly used in technical literature, the very notion of risk propagation turns out to be a conceptually imprecise and overloaded one. This might also explain the multitude of modeling solutions that have been proposed in the literature. Having a clear understanding of what exactly risk is, how it be quantified, and in what sense it can be propagated is fundamental for devising high-quality risk assessment and decision-making solutions. In this paper, we exploit a previous well-established work about the nature of risk and related notions with the goal of providing a proper interpretation of the different notions of risk propagation, as well as revealing and harmonizing the alternative semantics for the links used in common risk propagation graphs. Finally, we discuss how these results can be leveraged in practice to model risk propagation scenarios. ",

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author = "Mattia Fumagalli and Gal Engelberg and \{Prince Sales\}, Tiago and \{Da Silva Oliveira\}, \{{\'I}talo Jos{\'e}\} and Dan Klein and Pnina Soffer and Riccardo Baratella and Giancarlo Guizzardi",

note = "Funding Information: BeCoDigital]. Financial support was also received from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) for the Wal-e-Cities project with award number [ETR121200003138] and from the Research Public Service of Wallonia (SPW Recherche) for the project ARIAC by DIGITALWALLONIA4AI with award number [2010235]. Funding Information: Acknowledgement. This research was supported by ERDF “CyberSecurity, CyberCrime and Critical Information Infrastructures Center of Excellence” (No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16\_019/0000822). It was also co-founded by the European Union under Grant Agreement No. 101087529. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or European Research Executive Agency. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Funding Information: Acknowledgements. This research is supported by the Estonian Research Council (PRG1226) and the European Research Council (PIX Project). Funding Information: Unit 2023-2027 (CEX2021-001201-M) funded by MCIN/AEI /10.13039/501100011033, and the RCIS community for their valuable insights that helped develop this work. Funding Information: Acknowledgements. This work has been developed under the project Digital Knowledge Graph – Adaptable Analytics API with the financial support of Accenture LTD, the Generalitat Valenciana through the CoMoDiD project (CIPROM/2021/023), the Spanish State Research Agency through the DELFOS (PDC2021-121243-I00) and SREC (PID2021-123824OB-I00) projects, MICIN/AEI/10.13039/501 100011033 and co-financed with ERDF and the European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR. Funding Information: and H2020 Programmes under grant agreements 101070455 (DYNABIC), 101095634 (ENTRUST) and 101020416 (ERATOSTHENES), and the Research Council of Norway{\textquoteright}s BIA-IPN programme under grant agreement 309700 (FLEET). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.; 17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Science, RCIS 2023, RCIS 2023 ; Conference date: 23-05-2023 Through 26-08-2023",

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Fumagalli, M, Engelberg, G, Prince Sales, T, Da Silva Oliveira, ÍJ, Klein, D, Soffer, P, Baratella, R & Guizzardi, G 2023, On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. in S Nurcan, AL Opdahl, H Mouratidis & A Tsohou (eds), Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World: 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Corfu, Greece, May 23–26, 2023, Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol. 476, pp. 69-86, 17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Science, RCIS 2023, Corfu, Greece, 23/05/23. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. / Fumagalli, Mattia; Engelberg, Gal; Prince Sales, Tiago et al.
Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World: 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Corfu, Greece, May 23–26, 2023, Proceedings. ed. / Selmin Nurcan; Andreas L. Opdahl; Haralambos Mouratidis; Aggeliki Tsohou. 2023. p. 69-86 (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing; Vol. 476).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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AU - Prince Sales, Tiago

AU - Da Silva Oliveira, Ítalo José

AU - Klein, Dan

AU - Soffer, Pnina

AU - Baratella, Riccardo

AU - Guizzardi, Giancarlo

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AB - Risk propagation encompasses a plethora of techniques for analyzing how risk “spreads” in a given system. Albeit commonly used in technical literature, the very notion of risk propagation turns out to be a conceptually imprecise and overloaded one. This might also explain the multitude of modeling solutions that have been proposed in the literature. Having a clear understanding of what exactly risk is, how it be quantified, and in what sense it can be propagated is fundamental for devising high-quality risk assessment and decision-making solutions. In this paper, we exploit a previous well-established work about the nature of risk and related notions with the goal of providing a proper interpretation of the different notions of risk propagation, as well as revealing and harmonizing the alternative semantics for the links used in common risk propagation graphs. Finally, we discuss how these results can be leveraged in practice to model risk propagation scenarios.

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Fumagalli M, Engelberg G, Prince Sales T, Da Silva Oliveira ÍJ, Klein D, Soffer P et al. On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. In Nurcan S, Opdahl AL, Mouratidis H, Tsohou A, editors, Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World: 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Corfu, Greece, May 23–26, 2023, Proceedings. 2023. p. 69-86. (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

On the Semantics of Risk Propagation

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Keywords

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Research output

Legal powers, subjections, disabilities, and immunities: Ontological analysis and modeling patterns

Thinking Fast and Slow in Software Engineering

Towards Semantics for Abstractions in Ontology-Driven Conceptual Modeling

Cite this