Abstract
The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of human activities or other factors on the probability and other characteristics of an observed extreme weather or climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications in decision-making after the event and for raising awareness of current and future climate change impacts. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration has over the last 5 years developed a methodology to answer these questions in a scientifically rigorous way in the immediate wake of the event when the information is most in demand. This methodology has been developed in the practice of investigating the role of climate change in two dozen extreme events world-wide. In this paper, we highlight the lessons learned through this experience. The methodology itself is documented in a more extensive companion paper. It covers all steps in the attribution process: the event choice and definition, collecting and assessing observations and estimating probability and trends from these, climate model evaluation, estimating modelled hazard trends and their significance, synthesis of the attribution of the hazard, assessment of trends in vulnerability and exposure, and communication. Here, we discuss how each of these steps entails choices that may affect the results, the common problems that can occur and how robust conclusions can (or cannot) be derived from the analysis. Some of these developments also apply to other attribution methodologies and indeed to other problems in climate science.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 1-27 |
Number of pages | 27 |
Journal | Climatic change |
Volume | 166 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 10 May 2021 |
Keywords
- Climate change
- Detection and attribution
- Extreme event attribution
- Extreme weather
- ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
- ITC-HYBRID
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Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution. / van Oldenborgh, G.J.; van der Wiel, K.; Kew, S. et al.
In: Climatic change, Vol. 166, 10.05.2021, p. 1-27.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution
AU - van Oldenborgh, G.J.
AU - van der Wiel, K.
AU - Kew, S.
AU - Philip, S.
AU - Otto, F.
AU - Vautard, R.
AU - King, A.
AU - Lott, F.
AU - Arrighi, J.
AU - Singh, R.
AU - van Aalst, M.
N1 - Export Date: 26 May 2021 CODEN: CLCHD Correspondence Address: van Oldenborgh, G.J.; KNMINetherlands; email: oldenborgh@knmi.nl Funding details: Australian Research Council, ARC, DE180100638 Funding details: European Commission, EC Funding text 1: This paper builds on results from the Copernicus COP 039 and C3S 62 contracts lead by KNMI, which focused on the development of a prototype for extreme events and attribution service within the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and funded by the European Union. The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre authors were partly supported by the Partners for Resilience program. AK was funded by the Australian Research Council (DE180100638). 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PY - 2021/5/10
Y1 - 2021/5/10
N2 - The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of human activities or other factors on the probability and other characteristics of an observed extreme weather or climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications in decision-making after the event and for raising awareness of current and future climate change impacts. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration has over the last 5 years developed a methodology to answer these questions in a scientifically rigorous way in the immediate wake of the event when the information is most in demand. This methodology has been developed in the practice of investigating the role of climate change in two dozen extreme events world-wide. In this paper, we highlight the lessons learned through this experience. The methodology itself is documented in a more extensive companion paper. It covers all steps in the attribution process: the event choice and definition, collecting and assessing observations and estimating probability and trends from these, climate model evaluation, estimating modelled hazard trends and their significance, synthesis of the attribution of the hazard, assessment of trends in vulnerability and exposure, and communication. Here, we discuss how each of these steps entails choices that may affect the results, the common problems that can occur and how robust conclusions can (or cannot) be derived from the analysis. Some of these developments also apply to other attribution methodologies and indeed to other problems in climate science.
AB - The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of human activities or other factors on the probability and other characteristics of an observed extreme weather or climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications in decision-making after the event and for raising awareness of current and future climate change impacts. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration has over the last 5 years developed a methodology to answer these questions in a scientifically rigorous way in the immediate wake of the event when the information is most in demand. This methodology has been developed in the practice of investigating the role of climate change in two dozen extreme events world-wide. In this paper, we highlight the lessons learned through this experience. The methodology itself is documented in a more extensive companion paper. It covers all steps in the attribution process: the event choice and definition, collecting and assessing observations and estimating probability and trends from these, climate model evaluation, estimating modelled hazard trends and their significance, synthesis of the attribution of the hazard, assessment of trends in vulnerability and exposure, and communication. Here, we discuss how each of these steps entails choices that may affect the results, the common problems that can occur and how robust conclusions can (or cannot) be derived from the analysis. Some of these developments also apply to other attribution methodologies and indeed to other problems in climate science.
KW - Climate change
KW - Detection and attribution
KW - Extreme event attribution
KW - Extreme weather
KW - ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
KW - ITC-HYBRID
UR - https://ezproxy2.utwente.nl/login?url=https://library.itc.utwente.nl/login/2021/isi/vanaalst_pat.pdf
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7
DO - 10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7
M3 - Article
VL - 166
SP - 1
EP - 27
JO - Climatic change
JF - Climatic change
SN - 0165-0009
ER -