Predictive policing in 2025: A scenario

Kevin Macnish, David Wright*, Tilimbe Jiya

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)


Law enforcement authorities (LEAs) have begun using artificial intelligence and predictive policing applications that are likely to raise ethical, data protection, social, political and economic issues. This paper describes application of a new scenario methodology for identifying issues that emerging technologies are likely to raise in a future six or seven years hence, but that deserve policymakers’ attention now. It often takes policymakers that long to develop a new policy, consult with stakeholders and implement the policy. Thus, policymakers need a structured, but concise framework in order to understand the issues and their various implications. At the same time, they also prefer policies that have stakeholder support. These considerations led the University of Twente in the Netherlands and the UK’s Trilateral Research to develop the scenario that follows. It is structured with several headings that policymakers need to consider in order to move toward a desired future and avoidance of an undesired future.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationPolicing in the Era of AI and Smart Societies
EditorsHamid Jahankhani, Babak Akhgar, Peter Cochrane, Mohammad Dastbaz
Number of pages17
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-50613-1
ISBN (Print)978-3-030-50612-4
Publication statusPublished - 18 Jul 2020

Publication series

NameAdvanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications
ISSN (Print)1613-5113
ISSN (Electronic)2363-9466


  • Law enforcement authorities
  • Policing
  • Predictive analysis
  • Predictive policing
  • SHERPA project
  • n/a OA procedure

Cite this