Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods

Martijn J. Booij; Martijn Huisjes; Arjen Ysbert Hoekstra

Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods

Martijn J. Booij, Martijn Huisjes, Arjen Ysbert Hoekstra

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50%).

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007
Editors	Eva Boegh, Harald Kunstmann, Thorsten Wagener, Alan Hall, Luis Bastidas, Stewart Franks, Hoshin Gupta, Dan Rosbjerg, John Schaake
Place of Publication	Wallingford, UK
Publisher	IAHS Press
Pages	221-228
Number of pages	508
ISBN (Print)	978-1-90150278-09-1
Publication status	Published - 2 Jul 2007
Event	IUGG XXIV General Assembly 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet - Perugia, Italy Duration: 9 Jul 2007 → 13 Jul 2007 Conference number: 24

Publication series

Name	IAHS publication
Publisher	IAHS Press
Number	313
ISSN (Print)	0144-7815

Conference

Conference	IUGG XXIV General Assembly 2007
Country/Territory	Italy
City	Perugia
Period	9/07/07 → 13/07/07

Keywords

Climate Change
Uncertainty
Regional Climate Model
fuzzy objective function
floods
HBV model
Meuse basin
Monte Carlo analysis
IR-78710
METIS-240415

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Booij, M. J., Huisjes, M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2007). Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. In E. Boegh, H. Kunstmann, T. Wagener, A. Hall, L. Bastidas, S. Franks, H. Gupta, D. Rosbjerg, & J. Schaake (Eds.), Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007 (pp. 221-228). (IAHS publication; No. 313). IAHS Press.

Booij, Martijn J. ; Huisjes, Martijn ; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert. / Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. editor / Eva Boegh ; Harald Kunstmann ; Thorsten Wagener ; Alan Hall ; Luis Bastidas ; Stewart Franks ; Hoshin Gupta ; Dan Rosbjerg ; John Schaake. Wallingford, UK : IAHS Press, 2007. pp. 221-228 (IAHS publication; 313).

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title = "Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods",

abstract = "It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50%).",

keywords = "Climate Change, Uncertainty, Regional Climate Model, fuzzy objective function, floods, HBV model, Meuse basin, Monte Carlo analysis, IR-78710, METIS-240415",

author = "Booij, {Martijn J.} and Martijn Huisjes and Hoekstra, {Arjen Ysbert}",

year = "2007",

month = jul,

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language = "English",

isbn = "978-1-90150278-09-1",

series = "IAHS publication",

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number = "313",

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editor = "Eva Boegh and Harald Kunstmann and Thorsten Wagener and Alan Hall and Luis Bastidas and Stewart Franks and Hoshin Gupta and Dan Rosbjerg and John Schaake",

booktitle = "Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007",

note = "IUGG XXIV General Assembly 2007 : Earth: Our Changing Planet ; Conference date: 09-07-2007 Through 13-07-2007",

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Booij, MJ, Huisjes, M & Hoekstra, AY 2007, Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. in E Boegh, H Kunstmann, T Wagener, A Hall, L Bastidas, S Franks, H Gupta, D Rosbjerg & J Schaake (eds), Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. IAHS publication, no. 313, IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK, pp. 221-228, IUGG XXIV General Assembly 2007, Perugia, Italy, 9/07/07.

Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. / Booij, Martijn J.; Huisjes, Martijn; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert.

Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. ed. / Eva Boegh; Harald Kunstmann; Thorsten Wagener; Alan Hall; Luis Bastidas; Stewart Franks; Hoshin Gupta; Dan Rosbjerg; John Schaake. Wallingford, UK : IAHS Press, 2007. p. 221-228 (IAHS publication; No. 313).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods

AU - Booij, Martijn J.

AU - Huisjes, Martijn

AU - Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

N1 - Conference code: 24

PY - 2007/7/2

Y1 - 2007/7/2

N2 - It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50%).

AB - It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50%).

KW - Climate Change

KW - Uncertainty

KW - Regional Climate Model

KW - fuzzy objective function

KW - floods

KW - HBV model

KW - Meuse basin

KW - Monte Carlo analysis

KW - IR-78710

KW - METIS-240415

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 978-1-90150278-09-1

T3 - IAHS publication

SP - 221

EP - 228

BT - Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007

A2 - Boegh, Eva

A2 - Kunstmann, Harald

A2 - Wagener, Thorsten

A2 - Hall, Alan

A2 - Bastidas, Luis

A2 - Franks, Stewart

A2 - Gupta, Hoshin

A2 - Rosbjerg, Dan

A2 - Schaake, John

PB - IAHS Press

CY - Wallingford, UK

T2 - IUGG XXIV General Assembly 2007

Y2 - 9 July 2007 through 13 July 2007

ER -

Booij MJ, Huisjes M, Hoekstra AY. Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. In Boegh E, Kunstmann H, Wagener T, Hall A, Bastidas L, Franks S, Gupta H, Rosbjerg D, Schaake J, editors, Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. Wallingford, UK: IAHS Press. 2007. p. 221-228. (IAHS publication; 313).

Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods

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