Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods

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Abstract

It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50%).
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationQuantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007
EditorsEva Boegh, Harald Kunstmann, Thorsten Wagener, Alan Hall, Luis Bastidas, Stewart Franks, Hoshin Gupta, Dan Rosbjerg, John Schaake
Place of PublicationWallingford, UK
PublisherIAHS Press
Pages221-228
Number of pages508
ISBN (Print)978-1-90150278-09-1
Publication statusPublished - 2 Jul 2007
EventIUGG XXIV General Assembly 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet - Perugia, Italy
Duration: 9 Jul 200713 Jul 2007
Conference number: 24

Publication series

NameIAHS publication
PublisherIAHS Press
Number313
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Conference

ConferenceIUGG XXIV General Assembly 2007
CountryItaly
CityPerugia
Period9/07/0713/07/07

Fingerprint

climate change
information management
uncertainty analysis
climate conditions
regional climate
climate modeling
winter
river
parameter
Europe

Keywords

  • Climate Change
  • Uncertainty
  • Regional Climate Model
  • fuzzy objective function
  • floods
  • HBV model
  • Meuse basin
  • Monte Carlo analysis
  • IR-78710
  • METIS-240415

Cite this

Booij, M. J., Huisjes, M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2007). Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. In E. Boegh, H. Kunstmann, T. Wagener, A. Hall, L. Bastidas, S. Franks, H. Gupta, D. Rosbjerg, ... J. Schaake (Eds.), Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007 (pp. 221-228). (IAHS publication; No. 313). Wallingford, UK: IAHS Press.
Booij, Martijn J. ; Huisjes, Martijn ; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert. / Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. editor / Eva Boegh ; Harald Kunstmann ; Thorsten Wagener ; Alan Hall ; Luis Bastidas ; Stewart Franks ; Hoshin Gupta ; Dan Rosbjerg ; John Schaake. Wallingford, UK : IAHS Press, 2007. pp. 221-228 (IAHS publication; 313).
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abstract = "It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30{\%}. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20{\%} resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50{\%}) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50{\%}).",
keywords = "Climate Change, Uncertainty, Regional Climate Model, fuzzy objective function, floods, HBV model, Meuse basin, Monte Carlo analysis, IR-78710, METIS-240415",
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Booij, MJ, Huisjes, M & Hoekstra, AY 2007, Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. in E Boegh, H Kunstmann, T Wagener, A Hall, L Bastidas, S Franks, H Gupta, D Rosbjerg & J Schaake (eds), Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. IAHS publication, no. 313, IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK, pp. 221-228, IUGG XXIV General Assembly 2007, Perugia, Italy, 9/07/07.

Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. / Booij, Martijn J.; Huisjes, Martijn; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert.

Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. ed. / Eva Boegh; Harald Kunstmann; Thorsten Wagener; Alan Hall; Luis Bastidas; Stewart Franks; Hoshin Gupta; Dan Rosbjerg; John Schaake. Wallingford, UK : IAHS Press, 2007. p. 221-228 (IAHS publication; No. 313).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Booij, Martijn J.

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N2 - It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50%).

AB - It is crucial for flood management that information about the impacts of climate change on floods and the predictive uncertainties therein becomes available. This has been achieved by using information from different Regional Climate Models for different emission scenarios to assess the uncertainty in climate change for the Meuse River in northwestern Europe. A hydrological model has been used to simulate flows for current and changed climate conditions. The uncertainty in the hydrological model is assumed to be represented by the difference between observed and simulated discharge and incorporated in the uncertainty analysis through the model parameters. Climate change results in an increase of the 100-year flood of about 30%. This increase is primarily caused by an increase of precipitation in winter. The predictive uncertainty in this impact is about 20% resulting from uncertainties in climate change (about 50%) and uncertainties in hydrological model parameters (about 50%).

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A2 - Rosbjerg, Dan

A2 - Schaake, John

PB - IAHS Press

CY - Wallingford, UK

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Booij MJ, Huisjes M, Hoekstra AY. Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts of floods. In Boegh E, Kunstmann H, Wagener T, Hall A, Bastidas L, Franks S, Gupta H, Rosbjerg D, Schaake J, editors, Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management. Proceedings of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007. Wallingford, UK: IAHS Press. 2007. p. 221-228. (IAHS publication; 313).