Probalilistic assessment of the flood wall at 17th Street Canal, New Orleans

One of the characteristic failures of the flood defense system in New Orleans occurred at the 17th Street Canal. The concrete wall and its extended sheet piles not only failed to withstand against the flood but it was also flushed away by the flood by horizontal sliding. The authors of this paper believe that a probabilistic approach can provide a better understanding of the failure mechanisms, its occurrence probabilities, as well as the consequences of failure of such important infrastructure. In fact, the probabilistic design will show to have several advantages in comparison with deterministic design methods; by applying probabilistic approaches, more careful designs and more cost effective and reliable structures can be constructed. In the present study the probabilistic approach is applied to the 17th Street’s flood defense, and its probability of failure under hurricane hazard, considering multiple failure mechanisms is assessed. The Monte Carlo simulation technique together with finite element approach is used for this purpose.