Quantifying the Yield Sensitivity of Modern Rice Varieties to Warming Temperatures: Evidence from the Philippines

Ruixue Wang*, Roderick Rejesus, Jesse Tack, Joseph Balagtas, A.D. Nelson

*Corresponding author for this work

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This study examines the relationship between yields of modern rice varieties and three major weather variables — maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation. Data from a long-running farm-level survey in the Philippines, with rich information on planted rice varieties, allows us to estimate fixed effect econometric models of rice yields. We find that increases in temperature, especially minimum temperatures, have substantial negative impacts on rice yields. Yield response to temperatures vary across different varietal groups. Early modern varieties, bred primarily for higher yields, pest resistance, and/or grain quality traits, demonstrate improved heat-stress resistance relative to traditional varieties. Moreover, the most recent varietal group bred for better tolerance to abiotic stresses are even more resilient to warming temperatures. These results provide some evidence that public investments in breeding rice varieties more tolerant to warming temperatures have been successful, and continued investments in these breeding efforts are warranted.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages50
Publication statusPublished - 28 May 2019
Event172nd European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE) Seminar 2019: Agricultural policy for the environment or environmental policy for agriculture? - Museum of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium
Duration: 28 May 201929 May 2019
Conference number: 172


Conference172nd European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE) Seminar 2019
Abbreviated titleEAAE Seminar
Internet address


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