Rare Event Simulation for Dynamic Fault Trees

Enno Jozef Johannes Ruijters, D.P. Reijsbergen, Pieter-Tjerk de Boer, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette Stoelinga

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    Abstract

    Fault trees (FT) are a popular industrial method for reliability engineering, for which Monte Carlo simulation is an important technique to estimate common dependability metrics, such as the system reliability and availability. A severe drawback of Monte Carlo simulation is that the number of simulations required to obtain accurate estimations grows extremely large in the presence of rare events, i.e., events whose probability of occurrence is very low, which typically holds for failures in highly reliable systems.

    This paper presents a novel method for rare event simulation of dynamic fault trees with complex repairs that requires only a modest number of simulations, while retaining statistically justified confidence intervals. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique for rare event simulation, together with a compositional state space generation method for dynamic fault trees.

    We demonstrate our approach using three parameterized sets of case studies, showing that our method can handle fault trees that could not be evaluated with either existing analytical techniques, nor with standard simulation techniques.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationComputer Safety, Reliability, and Security
    Subtitle of host publication36th International Conference, SAFECOMP 2017, Trento, Italy, September 13-15, 2017, Proceedings
    EditorsStefano Tonetta, Erwin Schoitsch, Friedemann Bitsch
    PublisherSpringer
    Pages20-35
    Number of pages15
    ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-66266-4
    ISBN (Print)978-3-319-66265-7
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 17 Aug 2017
    EventInternational Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security - Trento, Italy
    Duration: 12 Sep 201715 Sep 2017
    http://safecomp17.fbk.eu/

    Publication series

    NameLecture Notes in Computer Science
    PublisherSpringer
    Volume10488
    ISSN (Print)0302-9743

    Conference

    ConferenceInternational Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security
    Abbreviated titleSAFECOMP 2017
    CountryItaly
    CityTrento
    Period12/09/1715/09/17
    Internet address

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  • Cite this

    Ruijters, E. J. J., Reijsbergen, D. P., de Boer, P-T., & Stoelinga, M. I. A. (2017). Rare Event Simulation for Dynamic Fault Trees. In S. Tonetta, E. Schoitsch, & F. Bitsch (Eds.), Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security: 36th International Conference, SAFECOMP 2017, Trento, Italy, September 13-15, 2017, Proceedings (pp. 20-35). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 10488). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66266-4_2