Reliability analysis of flood defence structures and systems in Europe

In this paper, the reliability analysis of flood defence systems is outlined. Flood defence structures are used to protect flood prone areas against potential flooding from either rivers, estuaries, or coasts. Probabilistic methods provide a systematic way to assess the flooding probability Pf of engineering structures considering the failure mechanisms of such structures and the uncertainties inherent in the various parameters used for design. For this reason, there is a growing interest in the use of these methods in the design and safety analysis of flood defences and a separate task on this issue within FLOOD site (Task 7) has been completed. This paper will first give an introduction to probabilistic analysis, uncertainties, and a reflection on the deterministic versus the probabilistic approach. It will then continue by addressing the tools for a probabilistic system analysis and appropriate calculation methods. Failure probability calculations for an element and a system are also reviewed and a case study of a flood defence system (pilot site of FLOOD site) is presented.