Revisited rainfall threshold In the Indonesia landslide early warning system

R.A. Yuniawan; Ahmad Rifai; Fikri Faris; C. van Westen; V. Jetten; B. van den Bout; A. Subiyantoro; Agus Muntohar; Akhyar Musthofa; Rokhmat Hidayat; Alidina Hidayah; Banata Ridwan; Eka Priangga; Ratna Satyaningsih; Samuel Sutanto

doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7863

Abstract

Landslides are one of the most disastrous natural hazards that frequently occur in Indonesia. Since 2017, Balai Sabo has developed an Indonesia Landslide Early Warning System (ILEWS) by utilizing a single rainfall threshold for an entire nation. This condition might lead to inaccuracy of the landslide prediction. Therefore, this study aims to improve the accuracy of the system by updating the rainfall threshold. This study focused on Java Island, where most of the landslides in Indonesia occur. We analyzed 420 landslide events with the one-day and three-day cumulative rainfall for each landslide event. Rainfall data were obtained from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), which is also used in the ILEWS. We propose four methods to derive the thresholds, 1st is the existing threshold applied in the Balai Sabo-ILEWS, the 2nd and the 3rd use the average and minimum of rainfall that trigger landslides, respectively, and the 4th uses the minimum values of rainfall that induce major landslides. We employed the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to evaluate the predictability of the rainfall thresholds. The 4th method shows the best result compared to the others, and this method provides a good prediction of landslide events with a low error value. The chosen threshold will be used as a new threshold in the Balai Sabo-ILEWS.

Original language	English
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7863
Publication status	Published - 28 Mar 2022
Event	EGU General Assembly 2022 - Vienna, Austria Duration: 23 May 2022 → 27 May 2022

Conference

Conference	EGU General Assembly 2022
Abbreviated title	EGU 2022
Country/Territory	Austria
City	Vienna
Period	23/05/22 → 27/05/22

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10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7863Licence: CC BY

AbstractFinal published version, 291 KBLicence: CC BY

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Yuniawan, R. A., Rifai, A., Faris, F., van Westen, C., Jetten, V., van den Bout, B., Subiyantoro, A., Muntohar, A., Musthofa, A., Hidayat, R., Hidayah, A., Ridwan, B., Priangga, E., Satyaningsih, R., & Sutanto, S. (2022). Revisited rainfall threshold In the Indonesia landslide early warning system . Abstract from EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7863

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title = "Revisited rainfall threshold In the Indonesia landslide early warning system ",

abstract = "Landslides are one of the most disastrous natural hazards that frequently occur in Indonesia. Since 2017, Balai Sabo has developed an Indonesia Landslide Early Warning System (ILEWS) by utilizing a single rainfall threshold for an entire nation. This condition might lead to inaccuracy of the landslide prediction. Therefore, this study aims to improve the accuracy of the system by updating the rainfall threshold. This study focused on Java Island, where most of the landslides in Indonesia occur. We analyzed 420 landslide events with the one-day and three-day cumulative rainfall for each landslide event. Rainfall data were obtained from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), which is also used in the ILEWS. We propose four methods to derive the thresholds, 1st is the existing threshold applied in the Balai Sabo-ILEWS, the 2nd and the 3rd use the average and minimum of rainfall that trigger landslides, respectively, and the 4th uses the minimum values of rainfall that induce major landslides. We employed the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to evaluate the predictability of the rainfall thresholds. The 4th method shows the best result compared to the others, and this method provides a good prediction of landslide events with a low error value. The chosen threshold will be used as a new threshold in the Balai Sabo-ILEWS.",

author = "R.A. Yuniawan and Ahmad Rifai and Fikri Faris and \{van Westen\}, C. and V. Jetten and \{van den Bout\}, B. and A. Subiyantoro and Agus Muntohar and Akhyar Musthofa and Rokhmat Hidayat and Alidina Hidayah and Banata Ridwan and Eka Priangga and Ratna Satyaningsih and Samuel Sutanto",

year = "2022",

month = mar,

day = "28",

doi = "10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7863",

language = "English",

note = "EGU General Assembly 2022, EGU 2022 ; Conference date: 23-05-2022 Through 27-05-2022",

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Yuniawan, RA, Rifai, A, Faris, F, van Westen, C , Jetten, V , van den Bout, B , Subiyantoro, A, Muntohar, A, Musthofa, A, Hidayat, R, Hidayah, A, Ridwan, B, Priangga, E, Satyaningsih, R & Sutanto, S 2022, 'Revisited rainfall threshold In the Indonesia landslide early warning system ', EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23/05/22 - 27/05/22. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7863

TY - CONF

T1 - Revisited rainfall threshold In the Indonesia landslide early warning system

AU - Yuniawan, R.A.

AU - Rifai, Ahmad

AU - Faris, Fikri

AU - van Westen, C.

AU - Jetten, V.

AU - van den Bout, B.

AU - Subiyantoro, A.

AU - Muntohar, Agus

AU - Musthofa, Akhyar

AU - Hidayat, Rokhmat

AU - Hidayah, Alidina

AU - Ridwan, Banata

AU - Priangga, Eka

AU - Satyaningsih, Ratna

AU - Sutanto, Samuel

PY - 2022/3/28

Y1 - 2022/3/28

N2 - Landslides are one of the most disastrous natural hazards that frequently occur in Indonesia. Since 2017, Balai Sabo has developed an Indonesia Landslide Early Warning System (ILEWS) by utilizing a single rainfall threshold for an entire nation. This condition might lead to inaccuracy of the landslide prediction. Therefore, this study aims to improve the accuracy of the system by updating the rainfall threshold. This study focused on Java Island, where most of the landslides in Indonesia occur. We analyzed 420 landslide events with the one-day and three-day cumulative rainfall for each landslide event. Rainfall data were obtained from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), which is also used in the ILEWS. We propose four methods to derive the thresholds, 1st is the existing threshold applied in the Balai Sabo-ILEWS, the 2nd and the 3rd use the average and minimum of rainfall that trigger landslides, respectively, and the 4th uses the minimum values of rainfall that induce major landslides. We employed the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to evaluate the predictability of the rainfall thresholds. The 4th method shows the best result compared to the others, and this method provides a good prediction of landslide events with a low error value. The chosen threshold will be used as a new threshold in the Balai Sabo-ILEWS.

AB - Landslides are one of the most disastrous natural hazards that frequently occur in Indonesia. Since 2017, Balai Sabo has developed an Indonesia Landslide Early Warning System (ILEWS) by utilizing a single rainfall threshold for an entire nation. This condition might lead to inaccuracy of the landslide prediction. Therefore, this study aims to improve the accuracy of the system by updating the rainfall threshold. This study focused on Java Island, where most of the landslides in Indonesia occur. We analyzed 420 landslide events with the one-day and three-day cumulative rainfall for each landslide event. Rainfall data were obtained from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), which is also used in the ILEWS. We propose four methods to derive the thresholds, 1st is the existing threshold applied in the Balai Sabo-ILEWS, the 2nd and the 3rd use the average and minimum of rainfall that trigger landslides, respectively, and the 4th uses the minimum values of rainfall that induce major landslides. We employed the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to evaluate the predictability of the rainfall thresholds. The 4th method shows the best result compared to the others, and this method provides a good prediction of landslide events with a low error value. The chosen threshold will be used as a new threshold in the Balai Sabo-ILEWS.

U2 - 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7863

DO - 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7863

M3 - Abstract

T2 - EGU General Assembly 2022

Y2 - 23 May 2022 through 27 May 2022

ER -

Revisited rainfall threshold In the Indonesia landslide early warning system

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