Russian permafrost in the 21st century: Model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties

O. A. Anisimov, V. A. Kokorev

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Abstract

The authors study sensitivity of the model-based active layer thickness in the European and Asian Russia permafrost regions to variations in air temperature, snow depth, and vegetation patterns. The model has been used to estimate current changes of active layer thickness between the 1961-1990 and 2004-2013 periods. The calculations were performed using a scenario of coupled climatic and vegetation changes for the mid-21st century. Model calculations took into account the input data uncertainty. According to the modeling results, by mid-21st century the largest increase in the active-layer thickness (30 ± 14 cm) relative to the mean for the 1961-1990 period can be expected in the industrially developed Yamal-Nenets district of north-western Siberia. Over most of the East Siberian permafrost regions, the projected changes in the active-layer thickness are 20 ± 10 cm.

Translated title of the contributionRussian permafrost in the 21st century: Model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties
Original languageRussian
Pages (from-to)3-10
Number of pages8
JournalEarth's Cryosphere
Volume21
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

active layer
twenty first century
permafrost
vegetation
air temperature
snow
analysis
modeling
calculation

Keywords

  • Active layer thickness
  • Modeling
  • Permafrost regions
  • Stochastic projection
  • Variability

Cite this

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title = "МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ МОЩНОСТИ СЕЗОННОТАЛОГО СЛОЯ С УЧЕТОМ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ КЛИМАТА И РАСТИТЕЛЬНОСТИ: ПРОГНОЗ НА СЕРЕДИНУ XXI ВЕКА И АНАЛИЗ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТЕЙ",
abstract = "The authors study sensitivity of the model-based active layer thickness in the European and Asian Russia permafrost regions to variations in air temperature, snow depth, and vegetation patterns. The model has been used to estimate current changes of active layer thickness between the 1961-1990 and 2004-2013 periods. The calculations were performed using a scenario of coupled climatic and vegetation changes for the mid-21st century. Model calculations took into account the input data uncertainty. According to the modeling results, by mid-21st century the largest increase in the active-layer thickness (30 ± 14 cm) relative to the mean for the 1961-1990 period can be expected in the industrially developed Yamal-Nenets district of north-western Siberia. Over most of the East Siberian permafrost regions, the projected changes in the active-layer thickness are 20 ± 10 cm.",
keywords = "Active layer thickness, Modeling, Permafrost regions, Stochastic projection, Variability",
author = "Anisimov, {O. A.} and Kokorev, {V. A.}",
year = "2017",
doi = "10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2017-2(3-10)",
language = "Russian",
volume = "21",
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journal = "Earth's Cryosphere",
issn = "1560-7496",
publisher = "Russian Academy of Sciences",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ МОЩНОСТИ СЕЗОННОТАЛОГО СЛОЯ С УЧЕТОМ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ КЛИМАТА И РАСТИТЕЛЬНОСТИ: ПРОГНОЗ НА СЕРЕДИНУ XXI ВЕКА И АНАЛИЗ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТЕЙ

AU - Anisimov, O. A.

AU - Kokorev, V. A.

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - The authors study sensitivity of the model-based active layer thickness in the European and Asian Russia permafrost regions to variations in air temperature, snow depth, and vegetation patterns. The model has been used to estimate current changes of active layer thickness between the 1961-1990 and 2004-2013 periods. The calculations were performed using a scenario of coupled climatic and vegetation changes for the mid-21st century. Model calculations took into account the input data uncertainty. According to the modeling results, by mid-21st century the largest increase in the active-layer thickness (30 ± 14 cm) relative to the mean for the 1961-1990 period can be expected in the industrially developed Yamal-Nenets district of north-western Siberia. Over most of the East Siberian permafrost regions, the projected changes in the active-layer thickness are 20 ± 10 cm.

AB - The authors study sensitivity of the model-based active layer thickness in the European and Asian Russia permafrost regions to variations in air temperature, snow depth, and vegetation patterns. The model has been used to estimate current changes of active layer thickness between the 1961-1990 and 2004-2013 periods. The calculations were performed using a scenario of coupled climatic and vegetation changes for the mid-21st century. Model calculations took into account the input data uncertainty. According to the modeling results, by mid-21st century the largest increase in the active-layer thickness (30 ± 14 cm) relative to the mean for the 1961-1990 period can be expected in the industrially developed Yamal-Nenets district of north-western Siberia. Over most of the East Siberian permafrost regions, the projected changes in the active-layer thickness are 20 ± 10 cm.

KW - Active layer thickness

KW - Modeling

KW - Permafrost regions

KW - Stochastic projection

KW - Variability

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