Safety assessment of infrastructures using a new Bayesian Monte Carlo method

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademic

    1 Downloads (Pure)

    Abstract

    A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo simulations. Our main objective in this research is to show that the extended BMC can dramatically improve simulation efficiency by using prior information from modelling and outcomes of preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for an extended BMC method for multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model and apply these coupled models to assessment of reliability of a flood defence for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. This is the first successful demonstration of the BMC method to a complex system. We provide a comparison of the numerical efficiency for the BMC, Monte Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Bounds methods that are used in reliability assessment of complex infrastructures
    Original languageUndefined
    Pages (from-to)195-206
    JournalGeorisk: Assessment and management of risk for engineered systems and geohazards
    Volume5
    Issue number3-4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2011

    Keywords

    • IR-89092

    Cite this