Scenario-Based Strategic Modeling of Road Transport Demand and Performance

Sahand Asgarpour*, Andreas Hartmann, Konstantinos Gkiotsalitis, Robin Neef

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)
63 Downloads (Pure)


Road infrastructure plays an important role in the economic and social development of societies. Thus, it requires effective and timely responses to cope with and embrace uncertain future changes. This study proposes an integrated, scenario-based strategic model which estimates transport demand, network performance, emission, and energy consumption. The model accounts for future economic, behavioral, policy, and technological developments by including four future scenarios and traces the possible changes in transport infrastructure performance. It primarily aims at supporting infrastructure decisions by quantifying a set of network and environmental performance indicators along their spatial–temporal dimension. Moreover, the effects of transport demand and energy transition policies on road performance are considered within each scenario. This model is applied in a case study region covering the main industrial and urban regions of the Netherlands. The discussed results provide insights into the possible infrastructure investments within each scenario and elaborate on the possible effects of policies.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1415-1440
Number of pages26
JournalTransportation research record
Issue number5
Early online date6 Jan 2023
Publication statusPublished - May 2023


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