Sequential Monte Carlo simulation of collision risk in free flight air traffic

Within HYBRIDGE a novel approach in speeding up Monte Carlo simulation of rare events has been developed. In the current report this method is extended for application to simulating collisions with a stochastic dynamical model of an air traffic operational concept. Subsequently this extended Monte Carlo simulation approach is applied to a simulation model of an advanced free flight operational concept; i.e. one in which aircraft are responsible for self separation with each other. The Monte Carlo simulation results obtained for this advanced concept show that the novel method works well, and that it allows studying rare events that stayed invisible in previous Monte Carlo simulations of advanced air traffic operational concepts.