Spatial modeling of drought events using max-stable processes

M. Oesting (Corresponding Author), A. Stein

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

With their severe environmental and socioeconomic impact, drought events belong to the most far-reaching natural disasters. Effects are tremendous in rain-fed agricultural areas as in Africa. We analyzed and modeled the spatio-temporal statistical behavior of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a risk indicator for drought, reflecting its stochastic effects on vegetation. The study used a data set for Rwanda obtained from multitemporal satellite remote sensor measurements during a 14-year period and divided into season-specific spatial random fields. Maximal deviations from average conditions were modeled with max-stable Brown–Resnick processes taking methodological and computational challenges into account. Those challenges are caused by the large spatial extent and the relatively short time span covered by the data. Extensive simulations enabled us to go beyond the observations and, thus, to estimate several important characteristics of extreme drought events, such as their expected return period.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)63-81
Number of pages19
JournalStochastic environmental research and risk assessment
Volume32
Issue number1
Early online date23 Mar 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018

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Spatial Modeling
Drought
Stable Process
drought
modeling
socioeconomic impact
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
natural disaster
Vegetation
return period
Disaster
NDVI
Disasters
Random Field
Rain
Extremes
environmental impact
Deviation
agricultural land
Satellites

Keywords

  • METIS-322129
  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
  • UT-Hybrid-D

Cite this

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Spatial modeling of drought events using max-stable processes. / Oesting, M. (Corresponding Author); Stein, A.

In: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, Vol. 32, No. 1, 01.01.2018, p. 63-81.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Stein, A.

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