Spatial prediction of poverty in Gauteng province (South Africa) in-between Censuses using land use datasets

To realize the first sustainable development goal of ending “poverty in all its forms everywhere,” local governments in South Africa need to implement informed targeted policy interventions based on up-to-date data and sound analytics. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) Censuses reveal the socioeconomic circumstances of people living in South Africa but are only conducted every 10 years. As a result, most analytical studies done in-between Censuses rely on outdated socioeconomic data. This study demonstrates how poverty levels in one of the provinces of South Africa, Gauteng, can be predicted when up-to-date Census datasets are not available. The spatial lag model is used to explain the relationship between the South African Multidimensional Poverty Index (SAMPI) and statistically significant variables extracted from land use datasets (i.e., land areas classified as built-up, informal, residential, township, and non-urban), and to ultimately predict the levels of poverty. Out-of-sample predicted poverty levels obtained based on the spatial lag model correlate with the actual levels of poverty thereby reflecting known spatial patterns of the levels of poverty in Gauteng province.