Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Angela M. Cadavid Restrepo, Yu Rong Yang, Donald P. McManus, Darren J. Gray, Tamsin S. Barnes, Gail M. Williams, Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães, Nicholas A. S. Hamm, Archie C.A. Clements

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3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background
Human cystic (CE) and alveolar (AE) echinococcoses are zoonotic parasitic diseases that can be influenced by environmental variability and change through effects on the parasites, animal intermediate and definitive hosts, and human populations. We aimed to assess and quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of human echinococcoses in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China between January 1994 and December 2013, and examine associations between these infections and indicators of environmental variability and change, including large-scale landscape regeneration undertaken by the Chinese authorities.

Methods
Data on the number of human echinococcosis cases were obtained from a hospital-based retrospective survey conducted in NHAR for the period 1 January 1994 through 31 December 2013. High-resolution imagery from Landsat 4/5-TM and 8-OLI was used to create single date land cover maps. Meteorological data were also collected for the period January 1980 to December 2013 to derive time series of bioclimatic variables. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the relationship between annual cases of CE and AE and environmental variables.

Results
Annual CE incidence demonstrated a negative temporal trend and was positively associated with winter mean temperature at a 10-year lag. There was also a significant, nonlinear effect of annual mean temperature at 13-year lag. The findings also revealed a negative association between AE incidence with temporal moving averages of bareland/artificial surface coverage and annual mean temperature calculated for the period 11–15 years before diagnosis and winter mean temperature for the period 0–4 years. Unlike CE risk, the selected environmental covariates accounted for some of the spatial variation in the risk of AE.

Conclusions
The present study contributes towards efforts to understand the role of environmental factors in determining the spatial heterogeneity of human echinococcoses. The identification of areas with high incidence of CE and AE may assist in the development and refinement of interventions for these diseases, and enhanced environmental change risk assessment.
Original languageEnglish
Article number108
Number of pages11
JournalParasites & vectors
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 Feb 2018

Fingerprint

Echinococcosis
China
Temperature
Incidence
Parasitic Diseases
Imagery (Psychotherapy)
Zoonoses
Regeneration
Parasites
Infection
Population

Keywords

  • ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE
  • ITC-GOLD

Cite this

Cadavid Restrepo, A. M., Yang, Y. R., McManus, D. P., Gray, D. J., Barnes, T. S., Williams, G. M., ... Clements, A. C. A. (2018). Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. Parasites & vectors, 11(1), [108]. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-2693-z
Cadavid Restrepo, Angela M. ; Yang, Yu Rong ; McManus, Donald P. ; Gray, Darren J. ; Barnes, Tamsin S. ; Williams, Gail M. ; Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J. ; Hamm, Nicholas A. S. ; Clements, Archie C.A. / Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. In: Parasites & vectors. 2018 ; Vol. 11, No. 1.
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title = "Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China",
abstract = "BackgroundHuman cystic (CE) and alveolar (AE) echinococcoses are zoonotic parasitic diseases that can be influenced by environmental variability and change through effects on the parasites, animal intermediate and definitive hosts, and human populations. We aimed to assess and quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of human echinococcoses in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China between January 1994 and December 2013, and examine associations between these infections and indicators of environmental variability and change, including large-scale landscape regeneration undertaken by the Chinese authorities.MethodsData on the number of human echinococcosis cases were obtained from a hospital-based retrospective survey conducted in NHAR for the period 1 January 1994 through 31 December 2013. High-resolution imagery from Landsat 4/5-TM and 8-OLI was used to create single date land cover maps. Meteorological data were also collected for the period January 1980 to December 2013 to derive time series of bioclimatic variables. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the relationship between annual cases of CE and AE and environmental variables.ResultsAnnual CE incidence demonstrated a negative temporal trend and was positively associated with winter mean temperature at a 10-year lag. There was also a significant, nonlinear effect of annual mean temperature at 13-year lag. The findings also revealed a negative association between AE incidence with temporal moving averages of bareland/artificial surface coverage and annual mean temperature calculated for the period 11–15 years before diagnosis and winter mean temperature for the period 0–4 years. Unlike CE risk, the selected environmental covariates accounted for some of the spatial variation in the risk of AE.ConclusionsThe present study contributes towards efforts to understand the role of environmental factors in determining the spatial heterogeneity of human echinococcoses. The identification of areas with high incidence of CE and AE may assist in the development and refinement of interventions for these diseases, and enhanced environmental change risk assessment.",
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Cadavid Restrepo, AM, Yang, YR, McManus, DP, Gray, DJ, Barnes, TS, Williams, GM, Soares Magalhães, RJ, Hamm, NAS & Clements, ACA 2018, 'Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China', Parasites & vectors, vol. 11, no. 1, 108. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-018-2693-z

Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. / Cadavid Restrepo, Angela M.; Yang, Yu Rong; McManus, Donald P.; Gray, Darren J.; Barnes, Tamsin S.; Williams, Gail M.; Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J.; Hamm, Nicholas A. S.; Clements, Archie C.A.

In: Parasites & vectors, Vol. 11, No. 1, 108, 22.02.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Spatiotemporal patterns and environmental drivers of human echinococcoses over a twenty-year period in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

AU - Cadavid Restrepo, Angela M.

AU - Yang, Yu Rong

AU - McManus, Donald P.

AU - Gray, Darren J.

AU - Barnes, Tamsin S.

AU - Williams, Gail M.

AU - Soares Magalhães, Ricardo J.

AU - Hamm, Nicholas A. S.

AU - Clements, Archie C.A.

PY - 2018/2/22

Y1 - 2018/2/22

N2 - BackgroundHuman cystic (CE) and alveolar (AE) echinococcoses are zoonotic parasitic diseases that can be influenced by environmental variability and change through effects on the parasites, animal intermediate and definitive hosts, and human populations. We aimed to assess and quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of human echinococcoses in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China between January 1994 and December 2013, and examine associations between these infections and indicators of environmental variability and change, including large-scale landscape regeneration undertaken by the Chinese authorities.MethodsData on the number of human echinococcosis cases were obtained from a hospital-based retrospective survey conducted in NHAR for the period 1 January 1994 through 31 December 2013. High-resolution imagery from Landsat 4/5-TM and 8-OLI was used to create single date land cover maps. Meteorological data were also collected for the period January 1980 to December 2013 to derive time series of bioclimatic variables. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the relationship between annual cases of CE and AE and environmental variables.ResultsAnnual CE incidence demonstrated a negative temporal trend and was positively associated with winter mean temperature at a 10-year lag. There was also a significant, nonlinear effect of annual mean temperature at 13-year lag. The findings also revealed a negative association between AE incidence with temporal moving averages of bareland/artificial surface coverage and annual mean temperature calculated for the period 11–15 years before diagnosis and winter mean temperature for the period 0–4 years. Unlike CE risk, the selected environmental covariates accounted for some of the spatial variation in the risk of AE.ConclusionsThe present study contributes towards efforts to understand the role of environmental factors in determining the spatial heterogeneity of human echinococcoses. The identification of areas with high incidence of CE and AE may assist in the development and refinement of interventions for these diseases, and enhanced environmental change risk assessment.

AB - BackgroundHuman cystic (CE) and alveolar (AE) echinococcoses are zoonotic parasitic diseases that can be influenced by environmental variability and change through effects on the parasites, animal intermediate and definitive hosts, and human populations. We aimed to assess and quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of human echinococcoses in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China between January 1994 and December 2013, and examine associations between these infections and indicators of environmental variability and change, including large-scale landscape regeneration undertaken by the Chinese authorities.MethodsData on the number of human echinococcosis cases were obtained from a hospital-based retrospective survey conducted in NHAR for the period 1 January 1994 through 31 December 2013. High-resolution imagery from Landsat 4/5-TM and 8-OLI was used to create single date land cover maps. Meteorological data were also collected for the period January 1980 to December 2013 to derive time series of bioclimatic variables. A Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the relationship between annual cases of CE and AE and environmental variables.ResultsAnnual CE incidence demonstrated a negative temporal trend and was positively associated with winter mean temperature at a 10-year lag. There was also a significant, nonlinear effect of annual mean temperature at 13-year lag. The findings also revealed a negative association between AE incidence with temporal moving averages of bareland/artificial surface coverage and annual mean temperature calculated for the period 11–15 years before diagnosis and winter mean temperature for the period 0–4 years. Unlike CE risk, the selected environmental covariates accounted for some of the spatial variation in the risk of AE.ConclusionsThe present study contributes towards efforts to understand the role of environmental factors in determining the spatial heterogeneity of human echinococcoses. The identification of areas with high incidence of CE and AE may assist in the development and refinement of interventions for these diseases, and enhanced environmental change risk assessment.

KW - ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE

KW - ITC-GOLD

UR - https://ezproxy2.utwente.nl/login?url=https://webapps.itc.utwente.nl/library/2018/isi/hamm_par.pdf

U2 - 10.1186/s13071-018-2693-z

DO - 10.1186/s13071-018-2693-z

M3 - Article

VL - 11

JO - Parasites & vectors

JF - Parasites & vectors

SN - 1756-3305

IS - 1

M1 - 108

ER -