SPI-based drought characteristics using CHIRPS over Zambia: 1981–2024

Charles Bwalya Chisanga*, Edson Nkonde, Kabwe H. Mubanga, Darius Phiri, A. Chemura, Harison K. Kipkulei

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Droughts are becoming more frequent, intense and severe. However, there is lack of information on the drought characteristics in developing countries like Zambia. Further, the spatio-temporal changes in drought characteristics have received little consideration in relation to meteorological and agricultural droughts. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-based drought characteristics (events, duration, inter-arrival time, magnitude and severity) across Agro-ecological Regions in Zambia. The climate_indices python package was applied in computing SPI based on Gamma distribution at 1-, 3- and 6-month/s timescales using CHIRPS v2 data from 1981–2024 for ONDJFM. Drought thresholds of SPI < −1.2 were computed using the theory of runs. Results show that inter-arrival time at SPI-1, SPI-3 and SPI-6 exhibited significant increasing trends (p-value <0.05). However, drought events, magnitude and duration at SPI-6 exhibits significant decreasing trends. The combined drought categories increases from SPI-6 (19,392) followed by SPI-3 (19,619) and SPI-1 (20,260). The detected drought conditions from 1981–2024 was moderately dry. It is therefore, short-term water deficits of up to 6 months are increasing in Zambia and thus they have to be considered in agricultural management, drought assessment and in informing policy, National Development Plan and National Adaptation Plans.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-19
Number of pages19
JournalAll Earth (online)
Volume37
Issue number1
Early online date7 Mar 2025
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print/First online - 7 Mar 2025
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • ITC-CV

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