Spillover and conflict in collective bargaining: evidence from a survey of Dutch union and firm negotiators

Using unique survey data on Dutch collective agreement negotiators, the authors model how information about other collective bargaining events influences the probability of negotiators encountering bargaining impasses or industrial action during collective bargaining. Competing hypotheses about this influence, derived from economic, social psychological and sociological approaches, are tested. The findings indicate that information about bargaining outcomes elsewhere has no significant effect on the occurrence of conflict. However, if the information content of spillover refers to the conflict potential in other bargaining events and the sources of information are proximate, the probability of conflict is increased. This suggests that sociological mechanisms offer a compelling alternative to those invoked in economics for explaining the relationship between spillover and conflict.