Sustainability transitions in infrastructure: understanding causal dynamics in the Dutch asphalt paving sector

Recognizing that sustainability transitions are often impeded by complex social and institutional factors, this study aims to identify systemic barriers that hinder the scaling up of sustainable innovations in the Dutch asphalt paving sector and the causal dynamics that shape these barriers. Using a single-case study approach, we develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) based on data from 19 semi-structured interviews with key actors, selected through snowball sampling. Through this analysis, we identified three key clusters of systemic barriers: 1) project-centric loops, reflecting the dominant project-focused perspective in business models in the sector; 2) conservative mindset loops, linked to the risk-averse mindset in the sector; and 3) collective knowledge-building loops, which highlight gaps in information exchange, monitoring, and knowledge sharing. Our findings show that a lack of collective knowledge is a core barrier, manifesting in interconnected challenges such as misinformed policies and requirements. We propose practical interventions, including mandating environmental cost indicators, developing testing lanes, supporting independent testing organizations, and creating specialized innovation roles. This study provides actionable insights for public organizations, market parties, and third-sector actors to manage infrastructure projects in ways that promote alignment with long-term sustainability goals.