Systematic testing of an integrated systems model for coastal zone management using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses

N.T. Giang, Jean-Luc de Kok

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Systematic testing of integrated systems models is extremely important but its difficulty is widely underestimated. The inherent complexity of the integrated systems models, the philosophical debate about the model validity and validation, the uncertainty in model inputs, parameters and future context and the scarcity of field data complicate model validation. This calls for a validation framework and procedures which can identify the strengths and weaknesses of the model with the available data from observations, the literature and experts’ opinions. This paper presents such a framework and the respective procedure. Three tests, namely, Parameter-Verification, Behaviour-Anomaly and Policy-Sensitivity are selected to test a Rapid assessment Model for Coastal-zone Management (RaMCo). The Morris sensitivity analysis, a simple expert elicitation technique and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis are used to facilitate these three tests. The usefulness of the procedure is demonstrated for two examples.
Original languageUndefined
Pages (from-to)1572-1587
JournalEnvironmental modelling & software
Volume22
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2007

Keywords

  • METIS-230879
  • Testing
  • Sulawesi
  • Decision Support System
  • Integrated systems model
  • Validation
  • Coastal zone management
  • Expert elicitation
  • IR-78621
  • Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses

Cite this

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abstract = "Systematic testing of integrated systems models is extremely important but its difficulty is widely underestimated. The inherent complexity of the integrated systems models, the philosophical debate about the model validity and validation, the uncertainty in model inputs, parameters and future context and the scarcity of field data complicate model validation. This calls for a validation framework and procedures which can identify the strengths and weaknesses of the model with the available data from observations, the literature and experts’ opinions. This paper presents such a framework and the respective procedure. Three tests, namely, Parameter-Verification, Behaviour-Anomaly and Policy-Sensitivity are selected to test a Rapid assessment Model for Coastal-zone Management (RaMCo). The Morris sensitivity analysis, a simple expert elicitation technique and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis are used to facilitate these three tests. The usefulness of the procedure is demonstrated for two examples.",
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Systematic testing of an integrated systems model for coastal zone management using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. / Giang, N.T.; de Kok, Jean-Luc.

In: Environmental modelling & software, Vol. 22, No. 11, 2007, p. 1572-1587.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Giang, N.T.

AU - de Kok, Jean-Luc

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